WYSIWYG (What You See Is What You Get), With A Twist....

Good Afternoon!

I know that the title of this post is a bit unusual.  It's a computer term that describes the ideal kind of interface for a person to interact with a machine.  It also describes the weather in a neat package for the next couple of days.  It's gray and rainy in the area right now, pretty much anyplace you look out the window, and that's the way it will stay for the next couple of days.  The twist?  The mercury goes up instead of down as the rain rolls in...Let's take a deeper dive and see what's going on...

BIG PICTURE:  We have a pretty strong low tracking right at us from the southwest, but the somewhat unusual feature is a warm front leading the charge this way right now.  Computer models indicate he'll be pretty much on top of us tomorrow evening.  Temperatures will fluctuate some as the low gets to us, pushing a warm front through first, then a cold front behind that.  You see showers and a couple of embedded thunderstorms working back toward Indiana, Illinois and Missouri as you check out the radars that direction.  I don't think we get any widespread storm activity, but we may get just enough warm and unstable air to kick off a thunderstorm, but if we do have one or two they'll be buried.

TEMPERATURES:  We are chilly right now, but expect the mercury to actually climb as we progress toward Sunday.  Temperatures are 10-15 degrees warmer on the back side of the front, so when the breezes start to swing around to the southwest, that's your cue the surface boundary is close by.  Take a look at the current observations around the Midwest right now and you'll see what I mean...

Visible Satellite Image with Surface Observation Overlay

Warmer air is not far off - down in Indiana, South Bend reporting 52 degrees, Fort Wayne reporting 50, and a bit further off in Illinois, Chicago and Kankakee are checking in at 55.  Forecast modeling is suggesting we see 72 tomorrow here in Jackson, but I think that's a little ambitious, given the rain that will stick around.  Upper 60's look more realistic to me, and I'm going with 68 as the high for tomorrow.  After that, temperatures start to yo-yo again between the 50's and 60's for daytime highs, with lows generally trending in the upper 30's or lower 40's for the nighttime.

RAIN:  Yep.  Not a problem there.  We'll have steady rains for the bulk of Saturday, making for a dreary and wet college football game day in the area, then we start to develop some spacing between showers late tonight and into tomorrow after the warmer air rolls in.  Look at those rain totals on the National Weather Service 5 Day Precipitation Forecast:

5 Day Precipitation Forecast

Better than 3 inches of rain northwest of us where the low is expected to march through, around here, anywhere from an inch and-a-quarter to nearly 2 inches depending on your locale.  Keep the umbrellas handy, as I think forecast models have a bit better handle on the likely rain output as opposed to high temperatures this go-round.

SEVERE WEATHER:  Don't expect any severe weather issues out of this system here in Michigan.  The Storm Prediction Center did mention a low 5% risk of severe weather in extreme southeast Michigan,  Monroe and Lenawee counties basically, but beyond that, just some soaking rain.  If anything does come of it, look for damaging wind as your severe weather mode.  The better risk is due south, in central and southern Indiana, Illinois and Ohio, where SPC has added a "slight" risk for severe weather tomorrow.

There's plenty of shower activity to see on Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar right now, even though the south zone of the blog is about to catch a bit of a break until another organized shower group comes through later on...

Grand Rapids NEXRAD Reflectivity Image

No need to show you the satellite again, as the earlier slide showed the pervasive cloudiness around the state.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and vicinity.  For the rest of today, cloudy skies, showers a with couple of breaks, high 55 (that shows up later today), winds becoming SW and increasing to 10-20 MPH.

Tonight, cloudy skies, numerous showers, temperatures hold almost steady, nighttime low 54, winds hold steady, SW 10-20 MPH.

Sunday, continued cloudy, numerous showers again and perhaps a buried thunderstorm, but the showers slowly become more spaced and scattered, as the day progresses, high 67, winds 10-20 MPH with some gusts to 25 MPH.

Sunday night, cloudy skies, scattered rain showers linger, nighttime lows near 42, winds swing around northwesterly and taper off, as the cold front comes through, 7-12 MPH.

Back to work Monday with cloudy skies, scattered to numerous showers, high only 53.

Tuesday, finally some clearing skies, becoming sunny, high 54.

Wednesday, partly to mostly sunny with a few passing clouds, high 59.

Thursday, mostly cloudy skies with a chance at some scattered showers, high 56.

Friday, partly sunny skies, a couple of stray showers may move through during the day, high 54.

There's your six-day forecast, I do hope you have a wonderful Saturday, if you're heading out for football, stay warm, stay dry!  Blessings.