Fall Settling In...

Good Afternoon!

The changes are happening as expected today, with sharply cooler temperatures here throughout the blog area and some lingering showers with a couple of embedded thunderstorms tracking at us in a south-southeast fashion on strong north winds.

Elsewhere, the Mid-Atlantic is staring down the barrel of an active severe weather day as the cold front that has cooled us into fall tracks east and pairs up with a disturbance coming in from the Deep South.  Warm moist air that storms love to nosh on is in plentiful supply there, and Tornado Watches are up in that area until early evening.

Let's take a look closer to home and see what we have in store for the next several days...

TEMPERATURES:  We have temperatures in the upper 50's and lower 60's around the area, and that's where we stay for the next few days with northerly flow behind the cold front that is working it's way out of here today with some lingering showers (more on that below).  The 70's will be noticeably absent from the area for the next several days.  In fact, we don't see 70 again until the middle of next week!  Tonight will be the coldest night of the next several with temperatures in the mid 30's and some frost possible, especially in low-lying areas.

RAIN:  Not too much more rain is in the works here in South Central Michigan, as the front moves father away and the dry, cool, Canadian air gets a foothold in this part of the world.  Here's a look at the National Weather Service forecast for the next five days...

5 Day Precipitation Forecast

As you can see, the entire state comes in at pretty much a quarter inch of rain or less, I think that we in this part of Michigan get a little more than that though, because we will have a chance at some more scattered showers on Thursday and then again on Friday.  For my money, .30 or .40 inches of rain is about right on the high side.  The rain that has fallen today is rather spotty in mid-Michigan, so some places will stay bone dry.  After that, skies should clear off and allow the chilly air to roll in tonight, then we warm back up slightly over the next few days, until we get near those late week/weekend shower chances.

SEVERE WEATHER:  No threat of that here in Michigan for the next three days, but I will show you the "Moderate" risk area that the Storm Prediction Center has put in over the Mid-Atlantic region for today...

Storm Prediction Center Categorical Risk - Note Moderate Risk in red...

Strong to severe winds with bow echoes, damaging wind, and some tornadoes are possible across the East today.  I would say that if you have friends or family out that way, just call or text them and tell them to be near a reliable source of weather information today, and know what to do if their local NWS office issues a Tornado Warning.  And NO - OUTDOOR SIRENS ARE NOT A RELIABLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION!

Look at all the clouds on the visible satellite image!  Some spotty shower activity is starting to develop around the area as a fresh north-northwest wind pushes that rain into this area...

Visible Satellite with NEXRAD Composite Overlay

And here's the forecast for Jackson County:

This afternoon, periods of clouds and spotty showers, slow late-day clearing, high 61, winds NW 7-12 MPH.

Tonight, skies become clear, chilly, nighttime lows all the way back to 35, some spotty frost is possible.  Winds become SW 3-6 MPH.

Wednesday, mostly sunny skies starting, then clouds thicken later in the day, high 66, winds SW 3-7 MPH.

Wednesday night, partly cloudy, perhaps the chance of an isolated sprinkle, low 48, winds SW 3-5 MPH.

Thursday, a mix of clouds and sunshine with a chance at an isolated or widely scattered shower, high 67.

I'll have a post with the full six day forecast later for you, as well as an updated look at the weather situation in the Mid-Atlantic and East Coast!  Blessings.