Lots of Sun, Warming Trend In Progress...

Good Afternoon!

Lots of sunshine with clouds that are thinning out over the area at this hour, and that trend continues.  Examining the satellite out over Lake Michigan and into Wisconsin, there's no clouds there, just blue skies.

Visible Satellite Image

Let's pop the hood and see what we have going on!

TEMPERATURES:  Temperatures are starting to creep up.  We saw temperatures in the 40's and low 50's the last few nights, that will change as we move ahead in the week.  Daytime highs are on the upswing as well, with temperature readings climbing into the lower to middle 80's by Friday, as damping of the upper-air ridge/trough pattern continues, and the resulting west-southwest flow allows all that heat that has been trapped in the southwest to spread eastward across the US.  I do not expect us to get roasted anymore like we did earlier on this summer, but we will see some readings that are definitely conducive to getting some sun and maybe cooling off in a pool or lake near you!  Nighttime readings will leave the 40's behind for awhile, and should warm into the 60's in time for the weekend.

RAIN:  Not a whole lot of that to talk about in this forecast, even though a semi-broken line of  showers and thunderstorms formed and dropped some heavy rain on the Detroit metro area.  Southern Macomb County is under an urban/small stream flood advisory through rush hour.  You can see those storms headed off into Canada and points east on the Detroit NEXRAD...

Detroit NEXRAD Radar

As it stands now, the next credible shot we have at rain this area is this weekend at the earliest, but it looks to be more late weekend, Sunday night into Monday.  We just don't bring a lot of moisture into the area before Friday, and to get rain, you typically have to have a sharp temperature gradient and some moisture, preferably from the Gulf of Mexico.  Neither of those conditions are in the forecast for the next few days, just a gradual warming.  That being said, computer modeling does indicate that dewpoints will start to creep up as the weekend approaches.  Here's a look at the forecast from the National Weather Service for the next five days...

5 Day Precipitation Forecast

The forecast map paints the picture...BONE DRY through the week and into the weekend.

SEVERE WEATHER:  We're getting into the time of year where the severe threat tends to stay fairly low for a few days at a time.  Typically, we find a "slight" risk on the map somewhere at least every two to three days, and they are in the Midwest, Great Plains, Dixie Alley, or Tornado Alley.  Not so now.  That will change as the seasons begin to morph from summer to fall, and we get unsettled weather again, as summer conditions fight to hang on in the face of the cold season arriving.  The whole US is in a pretty quiet pattern, with no formal severe risk areas outlined by the Storm Prediction Center for the next three days, and just a few "see text" areas on their maps that mark low end 5% chances for wind and hail issues.  That being said, all we need is a major pattern shift or a tropical system to make landfall someplace on the mainland, and then this regime goes out the window.

Sunshine and breezy here in the South Central Michigan Weather Zone at this hour, let's take a look at the forecast for you...

Tonight, mostly starry skies, with a few passing clouds nighttime low 50, winds die off and become calm, then SW to 5 MPH as daybreak approaches.

Wednesday, mostly sunny skies, warmer, high 79, winds SW calm to 5 MPH.

Wednesday night, skies remain mostly clear, maybe a couple of passing clouds, not quite as cool with lows rolling back to 53, winds SW 3-7 MPH.

Thursday, sunshine, some passing clouds later in the day, warmer, high 81, winds SW 4-9 MPH.

Thursday night, a mix of clouds and stars, low 55, winds S 3-7 MPH.

Friday, more sun than clouds, breezy and warmer, high 84, winds S 5-10 MPH.

Saturday, a mix of clouds and sunshine, a chance of a couple of scattered showers, perhaps a lonely thunderstorm, high 85.

Sunday, continued partly cloudy and warm, we still can't rule out a stray shower or storm, high 84.

Monday, partly sunny, not as warm, a chance at a widely scattered shower, high 80.

There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a great evening!  Blessings.