Hot Again, Some Relief In Sight....

Good Morning!


One of the hottest days of the year is here, but some form of relief is on tap for us for in another day or two.  A pair of 588 heat domes have set up shop in the southwest and southeast parts of the nation, joined forces through the deep south and southern Plains, and are making their presence known with temperatures in the middle 90's all the way up into New England!  Here's a map from the GFS computer forecast model.  Where the 588 lines are is where the heat is.  There's also a 594 circle in southwestern PA and the Virginias, that's good for intense heat, with air temperatures likely exceeding 100+!

GFS Computer Forecast Model Map, 500mb Thickness and Vorticity

If you have to be outside in the South Central Michigan Weather Zone today, rest often, drink lots of water, and shade it up as much as practical!  It is an Ozone Action Day for Lenawee, Washtenaw and Livingston counties today as well, so those of you in those areas REALLY need to take it easy during the day.  Let's take a look at what's under the hood...


TEMPERATURES: Can be summed up in one word: HOT!  We see temperatures edge as close to 100 as they have all year today, with high temperatures right around 95.  Heat index values will easily make it into the triple digits, against dew point values of 60 or better, so this heat will be a muggy, uncomfortable kind of heat that saps your energy if you are outside.  It's already warm around the area, with most spots in the blog area already reporting temperatures pushing 80 degrees before 9AM!  Here's a look at temperatures around the US right now...

US Surface Temperature Reports, 9:00AM EDT

RAIN:  We'll stay in the sprinklers needed regime.  The National Weather Service is suggesting a pretty dry five day stretch for us here in South Central Michigan, with any one point around here not expected to pick up much more than a quarter inch of rain!  We are far behind where we should be for the month and season so far, and the temporary refresh from the line of thunderstorms that moved through Monday is long gone.  It looks like some areas may score a little bit of badly needed rain on Thursday, as the upper trough that has been raining on MN and WI finally gets close enough to us to perhaps touch off a shower or two.  Here's a look at the forecast map for the next five days...

National Weather Service 5 Day Precipitation Forecast

SEVERE WEATHER:  Nothing in Lower Michigan for the next three days at this point.  The Storm Prediction Center has the Upper Peninsula in a "slight" risk area, and a "general" risk for a sliver of the Lower Peninsula today.  Now, there is a trough moving this way west of us, and that is what's causing the severe threat I just mentioned.  Tomorrow there is just a small 5% threat of severe weather in our area, largely confined to the southeast part of the state.  Here's those maps from SPC...

SPC Day 1 Severe Outlook

SPC Day 2 Severe Outlook

Not much going on at this hour in the area, the visible satellite image shows us mainly clear with just a few passing clouds, but you can see where the upper trough is right now that will kick off some showers and thunderstorms.  Grand Rapids NEXRAD is quiet.

Visible Satellite Image

Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding communities including Liberty Township and Grass Lake:



For today mainly clear skies with perhaps a passing cloud or two, hot, high temperature 94, heat index values at or above 100.  SW winds 7-14 MPH.


Tonight, mostly starry skies, again a few clouds may float by, still warm, nighttime lows only roll back to 68, winds start SW but turn NW 6-12 MPH.


Thursday, a mix of clouds and sunshine, perhaps the chance of an isolated or widely scattered shower or a rogue thunderstorm, cooler, high temperature 85, winds W 7-14 MPH.


Thursday night, some clouds and stars mix, much cooler, nighttime lows drop to 59, NNW winds 5-10 MPH.


Friday, variably cloudy skies, cooling a bit more, with a high of 81.


Saturday, continued periods of clouds and sunshine, high 81.


Sunday, partly sunny, a slight chance of an isolated or widely scattered afternoon shower or pop-up thunderstorm, high 83.


Monday, clear skies, comfortable, high 79.


There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope your hump day Wednesday is a great one!  Blessings.