Stormy Thursday...

Good Morning...

Burning the midnight oil a little bit here as South Central Michigan is under a severe weather threat.  Let's get right to it.

SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE:  The Storm Prediction Center has us in the standard "slight" risk for severe thunderstorms today.  Here's a look at that graphic:

The entire blog area is under some risk of severe weather, with most of Calhoun, Eaton, and Clinton counties in the "marginal" risk area as opposed to the slight risk.  Right now it appears hail and gusty winds will be the main threats, but I cannot rule out the chance of a tornado at this point.  I can say that risk appears to be pretty low.

WHAT'S CAUSING ALL THIS?:  A low pressure system that is lifting out of Kansas and Nebraska and through Iowa, with the frontal boundary connected to the surface low triggering some showers and thunderstorms out in the warm sector.  On the back side of the system, sharply cooler conditions and winds turning northerly, pushing the mild air out of here and colder Canadian air working in.  Those 70 and occasional 80 degree readings we have seen will vacate the premises for awhile.  The cold front will cost us around 20 degrees of warmth!

PRECIPITATION:  The showers and thunder that is expected tomorrow will make up the lion's share of the precipitation for the next five days.  Let's have a look at how much we may see...

Along and south of I-96, half to three-quarters of an inch, more as you go north.  The bullseye will be down in the southern Plains and into the Tennessee Valley, with three inches or better of precipitation expected.  Rain and some of it locally heavy, with a small chance of minor flash flooding is in the equation for the next few days.

LOOKING DOWN THE LINE:  Clouds and cooler conditions stay in the area until late Saturday into Sunday, when we'll see some clearing skies and temperatures starting to climb again.  Average high in the area this time of year is right around 61, and I expect us to get back there as the weekend winds down, with temperatures back into the upper 60's and lower 70's by this time next week.  Wednesday also appears to be the next credible chance for rain in the area after we get some of that gone.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Parma and Michigan Center.

Today - Becoming cloudy with developing PM showers and thunderstorms, some could be severe, with gusty winds and hail up to quarter size possible. High 71 then falling.

Tonight - Showers and thunderstorms early, then dying off as the night wears on, cooler.  Lows near 41.

Friday - Mixed sunshine, much cooler, we can't rule out a stray shower.  High 54.

Saturday - Just the occasional peek of sunshine, temperatures stay fairly steady.  High 55.

Sunday - Turning sunny and warmer as seasonal readings return,  High 63.

Monday - Partly sunny, temperatures again hold nearly steady.  High 64.

There's your five day outlook, be looking for updates to the weather situation on Twitter @wxMikeD or on the Facebook page as needed.  Have a great one!

Stormy Monday (Evening), The Marginally Severe Edition...

Good Afternoon!

A beautiful Spring Palm Sunday going on right now throughout the area, with plenty of sunshine and readings in the 70's.  Let's take a closer look at what's going on, including the possibility of some severe weather tomorrow...

GORGEOUS RIGHT NOW:  Not a whole lot more to say beyond that.  Have a look at this image...

Just some high cirrus clouds evident on the visible satellite picture right now, but as you head west, clouds increase with some showers and thunderstorms in the nation's midsection right now, in Minnesota, South Dakota, and Nebraska.

CHANGES ON THE WAY:  We'll get through the rest of today and this evening is good enough shape, but then we'll have to be aware as a surface low moves from Wisconsin into Lower Michigan over the next several hours.  Daytime heating tomorrow with that low in the neighborhood will touch off some showers and thunderstorms, and not all of these will be garden variety.

SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE TOMORROW:  The Storm Prediction Center is suggesting the possibility of severe weather in the Lower Peninsula tomorrow.  The entire lower part of the state is in a "marginal" risk for severe weather tomorrow, with the standard slight risk impacting South Central and Southwest Michigan, including the west end of both zones of the blog...

The good news is that I do NOT anticipate any tornadic activity with the storms if they are able to fire and get rowdy.  The thinking is a semi-organized squall line of storms that will have strong straight line winds and some small to moderately-sized hail as the primary threats.  Taking a look at some of the severe weather data from our fearless forecast models, I'm not seeing a whole lot to worry about as long as you take time now to secure anything you don't want to go hunting for.  Let's have a look at a couple of graphics...

The map above represents a index that we use in severe weather forecasting called SBCAPE, which means Surface Based Convective Available Potential Energy.  The watered down version is, if a storm can fire and tap into this air mass, how much "energy in the battery" is there to run the storm?  That is a HIGHLY oversimplified explanation of this index, but it helps explain what I'm looking at.  We note that the value for this index is about 1000-1250 j/kg.  Enough to get you a rowdy storm or two, but you'd want to see a higher number for a more robust severe threat.  The other thing I notice is that there's not much of a "cap" in the forecast sounding data.

CAP = A layer of air off the ground that is warmer than the surface air.  In a thunderstorm situation, air is prevented from rising through the layer until sufficient heating has occurred and energy is available for it to become buoyant and lift thru the layer.  The longer this lifting process is delayed, the more energetic and unstable the air becomes, which can lead to more intense storms.  Think of a covered pot of boiling water.  The longer the pot is left to boil and covered, the bigger the steam plume when you remove the lid.

Again, that explanation is HIGHLY simplified, but hopefully you get the idea.  You want some kind of a cap to delay the onset of storms and "charge the battery" more for severe weather.  Not having much of one means that the first chance the air has to rise, it will, so storms will likely initiate sooner, and with less vigor than if there's a cap to contend with.

Please understand, I am in no way saying the severe threat tomorrow is zero.  You expect the unexpected when you're talking about severe weather.   I'm saying that the most likely modes are damaging straight-line wind and some marginally severe hail (probably nickel-sized at best).

DETAILS ON THE SEVERE:  Timing appears to be tomorrow afternoon or evening.  Chances of this impacting the evening drive home in South Central Michigan appear to be low.  This appears to be more of a near dusk/sunset affair for our part of the world.  A reasonably solid line of storms with some marginally severe straight-line gusts, and hail up to nickel sized should fill the bill right now.  We'll check and see if we have any radical changes.

OK, WHAT ABOUT AFTER?:  Well, we won't have any more severe for a while, and I don't even thin we get much widespread rain for the next few days.  It'll cool off a bit from recent days, and I anticipate them still above normal, but single digits above, and not 15-20 degrees or better as we have been.  Aside from that, I'm not overly concerned about rain.  I'll mention the chance of a stray shower on Thursday out ahead of a weak upper wave that will touch off some rains back to the south and east in more scattered fashion.  The next credible rain chance comes Saturday, when a strong surface low that will be way up in Canada will drag a cold front along behind it that could set off scattered to numerous showers.

Here's your forecast for Jackson and vicinity:

Tonight - Clouds thicken as the night progresses, still mild though, lows roll back to near 57.

Monday - Mainly cloudy, still mild, afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, especially east of I-69.  Some of these could be marginally severe, including gusty wind and hail that is nickel-sized or smaller.  Highs near 73, then cooling as the system approaches late.

Monday Night - Cloudy and cooler, a lingering shower or lonely thunderstorm may be around until midnight.  Low 47.

Tuesday - Clearing skies and noticeably cooler, but still seasonal.  High 60.

Wednesday - Mainly sunny to start, some PM clouds developing, a touch cooler still, high only 59.

Thursday - Partly to mainly cloudy, we can't rule out a lonely shower in a spot or two, High 62.

Friday - Mixed sunshine and warmer, high 65.

Saturday - More clouds than sunshine, some widely scattered PM showers are possible.  Warmer,  High 73.

There's a look at your forecast, I hope that you have a wonderful rest of your Sunday!

Snowy, Sloppy Monday On The Way

Good Afternoon!

It's the first day of Daylight Saving time, and I'm sure that you'll be feeling the missed hour of sleep soon enough if you haven't already.  I have been looking at some weather data regarding the snowstorm approaching from the northwest.  Lets have a look at it...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES POSTED:  These have been up for quite sometime so you probably are already aware of them, but if not, there are Winter Weather Advisories up for the following counties: Clinton, Ingham, Eaton, Calhoun, Jackson, Branch, Hillsdale.  Here's the text of the advisory for you:

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * Snow will overspread the area during the early morning hours
   of Monday. The snow is expected to continue into the early
   morning hours of Tuesday before ending.

 * Storm total snowfalls of 3 to 5 inches are expected across
   the area.

IMPACTS...

 * Expect hazardous travel conditons Monday into the morning
   hours of Tuesday due to snow covered roads, bridges and
   overpasses.

 * Plan extra travel time for the Monday morning commute was the
   snow should be falling across the area by then.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * The Michigan Department of Transportation reminds motorists
   to adjust speeds based on the conditions...and to take it
   slow in ice and snow.

 * Weather Preparedness Information is available on line at
   www.ready.gov/winter

We'll see readings fall and the snow starting shortly after midnight in the area from west to east as the storm system tracks just a bit south of Michigan, keeping us on the cold northern side of the system  I'm expecting a reasonably uniform 3-6" of snow with some locally higher amounts possible between now and Tuesday.

WHAT'S CAUSING ALL THIS:  In a nutshell, have a look at this:

That 1015 millibar low that is forecast to be on the Missouri/Iowa border tomorrow morning and continue sharply southeast will be the culprit, with snow overspreading the area.  I don't expect this to be a full on heavy duty winter storm event, but it will definitely be enough to mess with travel for the next two days.  That low will slide into southern Illinois and Indiana before it fades away and gets scooped up by a low heading up the east cost to become a nor'easter.  Here's the current water vapor satellite view, which already is lining up with the above FutureCast model image:

KEEPING IT IN THE DEEP FREEZE:  We'll keep our temperatures cold for the next several days, with something along the lines of Friday before we'll finally start breaking some of the cold air and getting back into warmer temperatures, warmer in this case meaning getting back to our seasonal average for this time of year right around 45.  We'll keep an eye on this for you and provide you with updates.

Seasonable Mix & Match Weather...

Good Afternoon!

What a difference a few days makes!   Back on Tuesday as we were about to tear off a page on the calendar, Mother Nature was tearing up other things with severe spring-like weather moving through the area.  On the back side of that, back to snow and winter.  Let's see what we have running under the hood....

QUICK SUMMARY OF 2/28 STORM ACTIVITY:  There fortunately wasn't a whole lot of reported storm issues in South Central Michigan Tuesday night, but Southwest Michigan had three tornado reports - Three EF-1 confirmed tornadoes, one each in Niles and Dowagiac, and one out in open country south of M-60 and just west of Calvin Center road.  No injuries or fatalities thank goodness!  A few high wind reports along the southern tier of counties adjacent to the Indiana and Ohio borders, and a couple of hail reports in Hillsdale and Washtenaw counties.  OK, now to the current stuff.

COLD WITH SOME SNOW:  Not a whole lot to look at right now on radar or the satellite, but I will show you the visible image...

With winds from the northwest blowing across Lake Michigan, you see the cloud banding typically associated with lake effect snow on the lee side of the lake over in the snow box toward Grand Rapids.  Fortunately there's nothing falling right now.  Temperatures plenty cold in the area, all sub-freezing right now...

Plenty of mainly cloudy skies and the "warm" spots are 26 degrees in Jackson, Marshall, and near Coldwater at Branch Co. Airport.  Current winds are pushing wind chills into the single digits as well.  Talk about cold!

CHANGES COMING:  The good news is the upper-air pattern we're in is progressive, so we won't have to mess with this wintry mess for too long before we get some relief.  This will come in the form of a ridge that is currently out west over the Rockies and western High Plains tracking east, shutting off some of the bitterly cold air that we have been messing with and warming temperatures up some.  We'll see readings recover into the upper 40's low 50's for Tuesday and Wednesday!

THERE'S A CATCH:  The warmer weather comes at the expense of rain, and quite a bit of it, working into the area.  Have a look at these maps:

Here's the GFS FutureCast map for 1 AM EST Tuesday the 7th.  You see a well-organized 971 millibar low just north of the Canada border, and out ahead of the cold front, plenty of rain.  You'll also want to be prepared for temperatures to make a run for the cellar again after that cold front sweeps through!  Fortunately though, I do not expect a big rain to snow changeover event after that gets in and through here.

COLD AIR STILL AROUND:  The next break in the cold as it stands right now after what I discussed above appears to be in the Thursday to Friday time frame, as another ridge pushes into the area and brings us back up toward 50's territory.  My concern with that is a surface low that forecast data is suggesting will track across northern half of lower Michigan could bring some showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two with it, then we head for freezing again after that.

LOOKING DOWN THE LINE:  Still a ways away to lock this in, but the general pattern amongst the forecast model data seems to be fairly changeable, with mild spells that will bring readings in the mid 40's to 50's spaced out roughly every 3 days.  You'll see some rain associated with those, and then as the cold front moves through, some snow and colder conditions on the back side, which is more typical of the bigger weather pattern reset as meteorological Spring takes hold.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and vicinity:

Today - Mainly sunny and cold, high near 31.

Tonight - Starry skies and cold, lows roll back to near 10.

Saturday - A mix of clouds and sunshine and a touch milder, high 33.

Sunday - Increasing clouds and milder, with highs climbing to 51.

Monday - Cloudy skies with rain, an embedded thundershower is possible too, high 56.

Tuesday - Partly cloudy skies and cooler, a couple of lingering showers possible in the morning as highs stretch to get to 50.

Wednesday - Sunny skies and colder, high 44.

Thursday - Periods of clouds and sunshine, warming some, high 53.

There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, and I hope that you have a great day!  Blessings.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING - HILLSDALE, LENAWEE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR HILLSDALE IS STILL ACTIVE UNTIL 12:30 AM EST, IT HAS BEEN EXTENDED ENE INTO LENAWEE!

++++++++++++++++++

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI  
1133 PM EST TUE FEB 28 2017  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A  
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  LENAWEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN...  
  
* UNTIL 1230 AM EST  
  
* AT 1132 PM EST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST  
  OF HUDSON, MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.   
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.   
  
  IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES.   
  
* THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR,  
  MORENCI AROUND 1140 PM EST.   
  BLISSFIELD AROUND 1205 AM EST.   
  DEERFIELD AROUND 1210 AM EST.   
  
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE ADRIAN,  
BLISSFIELD, MORENCI, DEERFIELD, HUDSON, CLAYTON, BRITTON, OGDEN  
CENTER, CANANDAIGUA AND RIDGEWAY.  
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
  
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
BUILDING.