Winter Storm Tracking Toward S. Central Michigan...

Good Evening!

Though I really wish it weren't so, the area needs to brace for a significant round of winter weather.m  Let's get right to what's going on.

WINTER STORM WARNING:  The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Warning for all counties in the blog area except Hillsdale and Lenawee until 11 AM on February 25th.  Hillsdale and Lenawee are under Winter Weather Advisories.  Let's see what we have...

LOW DOWN:  There is a deep surface low currently causing severe weather in the Gulf States, especially Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama:

This first map is the Storm Prediction Center forecast for severe weather through 7 AM tomorrow morning.  As you can see, all the action is in the Deep  South and along the Gulf Coast.  We'll have a bit more time to prepare.

Here's the forecast map off the GFS computer model.  As you can see the low is right over ther triple point of Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi.  That's bad news for those folks,  All modes of sever weather are possible, including tornadoes,  There have already been some tornado warnings issued there, and those are on-going as I write this,  I digress though, let's advance the models in time just a little bit...

This is the GFS FutureCast at 1 PM tomorrow afternoon,  You can see that the snow is underway in the area, and you can also see why Hillsdale and Lenawee counties don't yet have a Winter Storm Warning issued.  They may be in rain still!!!

I have to cut this short for now, but stay tuned as this situation evolves.  Prepare for 6-10" of snow if you are under a Winter Storm Warning.

More To Come...

Full-On Freeze!!!

Good Evening!

Some of the coldest air yet is sitting over Michigan and the Great Lakes, and I hate to say it, but you've probably figured out, it's not going anywhere anytime soon.  Let's take a look at what we have...

WINTER WEATHER MISCHIEF CLOSE BY:  The good news is that the blog area per se does NOT have any winter weather alerts active at the moment, but all you need to do is look west toward the lake, and the northwesterly winds coming across that warmer lake water have the snow box in all sorts of mess.  Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for Allegan and Van Buren counties, and any county touching one of those two has Winter Weather Advisories up.  These will be for lake effect snow.  Things get more interesting tomorrow...

LAKE EFFECT INVASION:  The lake effect snow that is causing such a headache for the western counties along the lake shore will make the AM commute tomorrow an adventure, as the snow bands push further inland on increasing northwesterly winds.  1-3" is possible in the snow box tonight, and up to 2" is possible tomorrow as far east as I-69.  This snow will be blowing and drifting though, so use caution heading into work tomorrow.

IT STAYS BITTER COLD:  If you're looking for a break in this cold snap - good luck with that.  The upper air pattern is set such that the cold air continues to stay locked in place over the Great Lakes, upper Midwest, and New England.  Have a look at these maps:

This is output from the 18Z run of the GFS forecast model.  You can see the cold air in the whites and purples.  This suggests a high of 20 tomorrow and 14 on Saturday in Grand Rapids, with 21 and 13 in Detroit.  Single digit nighttime lows near zero Saturday and Sunday night. Sunshine will be in short supply over the next seven days as well.  All in all, your typical mid-winter blues kind of forecast for South Central Michigan.

SUSPECT FOR SNOW:  Based on the forecast data, each night from Sunday night through mid-week is suspect for snow, as a series of Clippers zip through the area.  You know the drill...a quick shot of snow or two every 24-36 hours, typically short-lived and 2" or less inland, a bit more toward the lake as long as the lake effect snow machine is cranked up, and it is.

LOOKING AHEAD:  I really wish I had good news or a major pattern shift in the cards for you, but I don't, not in this 7 day window anyway.  Consolation prize is that readings get back to their just above freezing norms starting Wednesday.

Here's the forecast:

Tonight - Cloudy cold.  Lows near 8.

Friday - Mainly cloudy continued cold.  High only 16.

Friday Night - Cloudy and frigid.  Lows near 5.

Saturday - Overcast and cold.  High 15.

Sunday - Mainly cloudy, a touch warmer, PM snow develops.  High 18.

Monday - Cloudy, snow tapers off late day, warmer.  High 34.

Tuesday - Gray skies with perhaps a stray flurry, high 30.

Wednesday - Still not much sun to be found and cold.  High 28.

Have a wonderful night,

Mild Now, Rainy Later On, Then Colder...

Good Afternoon!

Clouds and mild temperatures in South Central Michigan right now.  That stays with us for awhile longer, then we see some changes as the storm dumping snow in the Rockies and Plains heads this way.  What will we get out of it?  Let's chat.

MILD IN MICHIGAN:  Variably cloudy today with all reporting stations checking on at 37 or better:

I expect readings to remain in the at or above normal range right through the forecast window.  Average high in South Central Michigan is right around freezing, and readings may briefly get to 31 during the next 7 days, but overall, temperatures will average 5 to 9 degrees warmer.  We'll be in the 40's today and tomorrow, then a bit of a cool down, with seasonable readings in the upper 30's.

IT'S THE RAINMAKER:   The storm currently working into and through the Rockies, including the Four Corners and Colorado will be ejecting northeast into the Plains Tuesday night and into Wednesday, where we note Blizzard warnings up for parts of extreme north-central Kansas, eastern Nebraska, Iowa, and extreme southern Minnesota.  Winter Storm Warnings surround that.  Look at the map:

Note that the entire Upper Peninsula of Michigan is under some type of Winter watch or warning, as are the entire states of Colorado and Nebraska.  The good news is that unless this storm system turns right and heads almost due east, the forecast track right now keeps us in the warm sector, so precipitation should fall mainly as RAIN, not snow.  I expect the show to start between 1 and 5 PM tomorrow, as the low starts creeping into the area...

There's the 995 millibar low centered around Chillicothe, MO, with the blizzard raging in the cold sector, and rain in the eastern half of Illinois, northern Indiana, and the southern half of Michigan.  That low will move through and out.  Now on Wednesday, a second low could track roughly the same path, except with the colder air behind the first system you see above in place, we could get some wraparound snow amounting to an inch or two on Wednesday afternoon.  I'll have to look at that and see how that stacks up as we work thru Tuesday.

LOOKING DOWN THE LINE:  I expect clouds in and out over the next several days, with readings topping out in the lower 40's today, then rolling back into the low to mid 30's, with nighttime lows in the low to mid 20's.  I also see a shot of Arctic air working into the area around the 10th, keeping readings below 30 for awhile.

I hope that you have a wonderful rest of your Monday!

A Bit More Snow For You...

Good Afternoon!

OK, we can taker a deep breath.  The system that dropped the ice and such that caused all the mayhem yesterday and prompted various winter weather warnings - GONE.  That low pressure center is off to the northeast of the state now.  Just some high clouds in the area right now.  Let's dive into it.

MAYBE SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION:  Over by the lake in the snow box, we may see some lingering precipitation, but here in South Central Michigan, it'll be a bit warm for that.  Most reporting stations checking on with readings in the mid to upper 30's.  Muskegon is the warm spot along the lake, with 41 being reported, and similar readings can be had at the opposite end of the state, south of Detroit in the Downriver area.  Motown is 41, so is Monroe.

ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIP:  We'll see some late morning or early afternoon snow tomorrow in Michigan.  It won't be caused by any bona fide low pressure system though.  What I'm seeing is just an upper-level wave that right now is way down on the New Mexico/Mexico border.  It's energy that is coming around the base of the trough that has the western half of the US in frigid temperatures.  Look at this:

This is the NAM model's concept of what's going on at 18,000 feet up, the forecast is valid at 2 PM EST.  There's a trough over the western US, and the energy associated with it is in the base of it as I said above.

Here's a look at what's going on now.  Based on this, you can expect some flurries or light snow today, but then in the next 24 hours that changes...

This map shows what we expect to be happening at 2 PM tomorrow.  Basically that trough has flattened out west, and the energy that was in the desert is now where we are.

As that energy gets here in a hurry (it's a long way from New Mexico to Michigan!), you can expect snow to start falling sometime mid-morning tomorrow and persist through the afternoon.  I still don't expect this to be any huge deal, because the only forcing involved is whatever this impulse brings with it.  Really we're looking at the winds picking up from the west-southwest, so a lot of it will be tied to the lake effect.


WHAT ABOUT TEMPERATURES?:  Readings in the area usually run right around 31 degrees.  We'll be above that today and tomorrow, cool into the mid to upper 20's for the rest of the week, but Sunday and Monday we'll be back into mild weather, as the GFS is suggesting 36 for SUnday and 41 for Monday.

LOOKING DOWN THE LINE:  Two dominant themes in play weather-wise for us here in Michigan.  Lake Effect and Clippers.  Upper air patterns look to turn northwesterly or zonal.  Zonal means a straight shot from west to east.  Both of these will cause winds to blow across the warmer waters of Lake Michigan, so expect some possible snow in the snow box, and the lake effect can sometimes hold together as far inland as 127.  The upper air patterns look to be more northwesterly in nature, which will bring quick moving lows and upper waves over us - the Alberta Clippers.  They cool things just a bit, snow on you and leave an inch or two, then keep on moving.  I'm not seeing a system with any real teeth to it until the first week of January, but since that's still out in no-man's land, we'll check it again and let you know.

Here's the forecast:

Today - Cloudy, some lingering light snow or even snow-showers depending on location, high 37.

Tonight - Overcast, flurries or light snow with minimal accumulation possible.  Lows near 25.

Wednesday - Mainly cloudy, still a bit milder than normal, we can't rule out a stray snowflake.  High 38.

Thursday - Clouds and a bit cooler, some spots could see a few flurries or a dusting.  High 34.

Friday - Mostly gray, some spots may see a brief ray of sun or a flurry, cooler still.  High 28.

Saturday - Sunny and warmer, high 35.

Sunday - Mainly sunny with some passing PM clouds, high 37.

Monday - Increasing clouds, warmer still,  High 41.

I hope you have a great day!  Blessings.

Storm Update #3

Good Afternoon.


I have a free minute or two to post an update to the weather event ongoing in Michigan right now.  It looks like it will be awhile yet before things settle down, and I urge you to allow yourself some extra time to head home from work based on the ice and such that has fallen so far.  Here's a look at some forecast data from the HRRR model:

This HRRR FutureCast map is valid at 5 PM this evening.  As you can see, rain is just starting to work into the southern tier of counties, with ice and freezing rain still in the picture for most areas along and south of a line from Bay City to Pentwater.  You also see that 991 MB surface low that's causing all this, and plenty of snow to go around for the northern half of the Lower Peninsula and Wisconsin, stretching back into Iowa.

Looking ahead, the same model, the HRRR, except time advanced to it's idea of what the radar might look like at 11 PM EST...

The surface low is out near Monmouth, IL, precipitation is all rain except for maybe St. John's, Owosso and Perry, with snow over the top of the mitten, the Upper Peninsula, and back over pretty much all of Wisconsin,  The good news is that other than the little bit of snow that has fallen as part of the wintry mix, I don't expect any widespread accumulations.  That's good, as you'll have your hands plenty full enough traveling with the ice and freezing rain.

We actually get a breather on Tuesday, but another weak disturbance gets here in time to touch off a bit of light snow on Wednesday morning.  I expect less than an inch out of that, and it should be out of here by evening drive on Wednesday.  I'll have more information about the rest of the forecast for you later.