Showers Then Clearing

Good Morning!

Taking a look at the forecast data, there really isn't a whole lot to see in this part of the world over the next several days.  Let's have a look and see what's going on...

QUIET AS A CHURCH MOUSE:  Right now as I write this, all quiet in Michigan, however, take a look at the showers and storms that are coming out of Chicago and over Lake Michigan right now.

that are drifting northeast.  Other than that, nothing to see on the radar aside from a lot of noise and ground clutter...

NOTHING SEVERE IN THE WORKS:  The Storm Prediction Center is not predicting any severe weather for Michigan for the next three days,  In fact, about the only place in the CONUS that has the chance of any severe weather will be out on the eastern seaboard the next three days.

PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS TODAY:  A boundary working through the Great Lakes today will kick off a few showers and storms in spots.  I would suggest taking an umbrella with you if you're going to watch Friday Night Football at any of the area schools in South Central Michigan tonight,  I do NOT expect the whole day and evening to be a washout, nor do I think every stadium in the area deals with rain.  A few spotty showers are definitely in the mix though, especially along and south of I-94.

DRYING OUT NICELY:  After we get through today, drying out nicely, with the next credible threat at any widespread shower activity not until a week from today.

DOWN THEN UP:  Temperatures will dip for the weekend then climb, as the trough that will touch off our showers here works through the area, then we get more west/southwest flow back into the Great Lakes.  I expect mid to upper 60's and lower 70's in the area for the weekend, then we start to add a few degrees of reading as we get into next week, with 80 making an appearance next Wednesday.

LOOKING AHEAD:  Readings stay in the upper 70's for the rest of the week, and then by next Saturday, we re-introduce into the forecast a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms.

Here's the forecast:

Today - A few spotty showers linger, seasonably cool.  High only 66.

Tonight - A stray shower lingers, otherwise partly cloudy and chilly, lows roll back to 48.

Saturday - Becoming mainly sunny and definitely feeling like fall.  High only 64.

Sunday - Continued Sunny and warmer, high 70,

Monday - Sunny and pleasant, high 74.

Tuesday - Clear skies and warmer, high 76.

Wednesday - Sunshine persists, warmer still, high 80.

Thursday - Becoming mainly cloudy, some scattered showers or a PM storm, high 76.

Have a great weekend!

Stormy Then Cooler...

Good Morning!

Warming up in the area, and that will increase the likelihood of showers and storms, some of those could get rowdy.  Let's have a look...

MARGINAL RISK:  A good chunk of lower Michigan is under a "marginal" risk for sever weather this afternoon and evening according to the Storm Prediction Center.  Let's have a look at that map.

As you can see, it's really only the northwestern part of the mitten that gets away from any severe.  Looking at the radar composite, a big slow-moving line of rowdy thunderstorms is marching right now, and I expect them to start impacting South Central Michigan later on this afternoon and into the evening.  Here's what's on the board at the current time...

Now it's important to note that these storms are typical summer pre-afternoon storms inasmuch as they are actually out ahead of the main frontal boundary.  Any time during the year, but especially in the warm season, you typically, but not always, get some weather out ahead of a front rolling through,  These storms will have gusty winds and they can have marginally severe hail as well.  We need to see how the air looks in about 2 hours to see how things will likely lay out for the next 12.  Let's look at a few things and I'll give you my take on it.

INGREDIENTS ARE HERE:  I don't want to make this overly complex, but this map will help me tell you what's cooking,  Don't worry about the station plots (those are all the numbers).  Just look for the high and lows, the frontal locations, and note the green shading.

The H and L's and the frontal symbols are pretty straightforward, you see those on TV and on the web all the time.  The green shading correlates with dew point values of 65 or better.  You see where the fronts are marked off at right now.  I expect that cold front to sag south as it comes east across the Great Lakes the next 12-18 hours.  As you get that system edging closer it will create instability, and we have more than enough moisture (green shading) in the area to touch off those showers and storms.  Here's a look at the current Grand Rapids NEXRAD picture.

Quiet with clouds thickening in South Central Michigan at the moment, but rest assured, our turn is coming for the storms.

TEMPERATURES COMING DOWN:  After the cold front works through this evening and into tonight, expect reading down into the 50's then climbing back into the 70's and an 80 or two in spots as well.  Average in the area this time of year is right around 75, and we stay within 3-4 degrees either side of that right through the forecast window.

LOOKING AHEAD:  Once we get through today and tomorrow, I expect it to be reasonably quiet, Wednesday evening may see a hit & run shower or a storm, then clearing and cooling down.  Friday afternoon, a bit of an upper wave works into the area, perhaps requiring you to reach for the umbrella for Friday Night Football depending on where your game is.  Readings may not get out of the 60's on Saturday!  If we look at the WPC 5 Day forecast, we see a decent amount of precipitation expected to fall in the area...

Here's the forecast:

This Afternoon - increasing clouds, developing showers and thunderstorms, some could be severe with hail and high winds.  High 84.

Tonight - Showers and storms early, then clearing and cool, lows near 54.

Wednesday - Cloudy with some PM showers possible, high 77.

Thursday - Partly to mainly sunny, high 78.

Friday - AM sun, PM clouds with some scattered showers or a storm, high 79.

Saturday - Partly sunny, cooler, high 68.

I hope you have a great day!

Labor Day Look, And I BUSTED!!!

Good Morning!

MIKE, YOU WERE WRONG.  WHAT HAPPENED?:  In a nutshell, the strong and marginally severe showers and thunderstorms that traveled across the northern half of the Lower Peninsula yesterday morning acted like a big blender and mixed the air out so thoroughly, that even with daytime heating yesterday, it wouldn't destabilize enough a second time to kick off fresh showers and storms in the same area.  Therefore, the path of least resistance, and juicier air for storms to munch on, was basically along and south of a line from basically Flint to Ludington.  When the air got warm enough to pop through what capping their was earlier in the day, off to the races we went.

I did see that the Storm Prediction Center added a "marginal" risk for severe weather later on in the day, just before lunchtime, but I couldn't communicate that to you guys because I was working and didn't have access to a computer that would allow me to post.  I'll check and see if there are any workarounds for that.  Sorry guys.  I'll work harder for you next trip.  Speaking of...

SEVERE WEATHER NOT LIKELY:  We note this morning that the "marginal" risk area is gone with the new 8 AM outlook from SPC.  Just general thunderstorms expected in the area at this point, as there's not any really organized forcing for ascent in Michigan.  That being said, I still think that there is enough around for some scattered PM showers and a pop-up storm or two.  Less organization than yesterday, and less likelihood of severe.  Some high winds, pushing severe limits are possible if a storm can pop up and get rolling.  Days 2 and 3 of the severe outlook keep everything confined to the northern Plains and northern Rockies.

BIG PICTURE:  We'll keep the summer-like stuff around for awhile yet, Labor Day looks to be seasonably warm.  Gentle ridging is in place over most of the US and will remain in place through the holiday weekend.  All of the disturbances and such that cause your rain are being routed north, currently, though the jet stream is close enough that a subtle shift south does put Michigan in play for weather as one of those approaches.  We also note that there is some heavier rain activity expected south and west of Michigan, Illinois and Iowa, Wisconsin, Missouri.

LABOR DAY WEEKEND:  Expect warm to very warm conditions, with the chance of an isolated shower or storm today and tomorrow.  Those rain chances diminish as we get toward Sunday.  That will be the warmest day of the holiday weekend, with readings in the upper 80's and plenty of sunshine.  Labor I expect to be a few degrees cooler, and if you have any barbecues or anything like that planned out, be prepared to dodge a shower or two in the afternoon and expect increasing clouds as the day wears on.

LOOKING AHEAD:  Wednesday, a weak upper disturbance works through, touching off some showers and perhaps the odd thunderstorm.  After that, the area should be relatively rain-free until Sunday the 13th, with temperatures moderating nicely.  From Wednesday on, expect readings to stay in the 70's, with the chance of not getting out of the 60's starting from the 13th.

Here's the forecast:

Today - A mix of clouds and sunshine with just the mention of a stray PM shower or storm, high 84.

Tonight - Variable clouds, we leave in that mention of a shower or storm early, then drying out, lows roll back to near 63.

Saturday - A mix of clouds and sunshine, some spots may see a brief PM shower, warmer, high 87.

Saturday Night - More stars than clouds, a touch warmer than the previous night, lows near 67.

Sunday - Mainly sunny with just a passing cloud, warmer still, high 90.

Labor Day - Blended sunshine, clouds thicken a bit during the afternoon, we can't rule out an afternoon shower or lonely storm, cooler, high 84.

Tuesday - Becoming mainly cloudy, scattered showers and a couple of thunderstorms expected, high 82.  Any one spot sees about a 4 in 10 crack at rain.

Wednesday - Continued mainly cloudy, perhaps few peeks of sunshine, a 50/50 chance of showers and a storm or two, cooler.  High 74.

Thursday - Some clearing, cooler.  High 71.

There's a look at your forecast, I hope you have a great day!  Blessings.

Damp & Muggy...

Good Morning!

Warm and muggy today with some scattered PM showers and storms are the expected game plan.  We see a cluster of thunderstorms ongoing in the northern half of the mitten right now, affecting places such as Cadillac, Traverse City, and Grayling.  Here's the radar:

Let's take a closer at it for you.

TROUGH WEST, RIDGE EAST:  We note a trough in the western part of the US, with ridging from the southern Great Plains all the way north into New York state.  While the Storm Prediction Center doesn't expect severe weather anywhere in the lower 48 today, those PM storms could get rowdy, with some straight line wind that could cause minor damage.  Here's a look at today's risk map:

Now tomorrow and Saturday, we note that SPC does add a marginal risk for severe to the mix, in the northern Great Plains and Rockies.

CONTINUED STEAMY:  Southwesterly flow aloft will continue, pumping plenty of moisture into the area to fuel showers and and storms as the day progresses and we get the normal warm season daytime heating.  These will NOT totally wash out anything you might have on the slate - JV football for example, but just know that some spots will see some rain and even some storms that could temporarily halt those activities until the storms leave the area.  Temperatures in the mid to upper 80's aren't as hot as in past days, but dew point values in the upper 60's and lower 70's will give you all you need for heat index values near 90 or better and those PM storms.

SOME DECENT RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS:  Taking a look at the next five days, we'll pick up some rain around the area, with a 1.4" bullseye over the Flint area, and South Central Michigan expected to pick up about one and a quarter inches of rain over the same period.  This suggests that our afternoons and evenings will see those periods of scattered PM showers and storms I alluded to above.  Here's the Weather Prediction Center's map which shows what's on tap in better detail.

LOOKING AHEAD:  No real change in the pattern until next week, when the trough that is currently parked over the western third of the US finally starts nosing into the Great Lakes, bringing a change in wind direction, allowing drier and cooler air from the Pacific and Canada to work into the area and bring down dew point values, and pushing daytime highs back into the lower 80's.  I expect that change to start being felt next Tuesday/Wednesday.  I see that the GFS computer forecast model is only suggesting a high of 70 a week from today!  That'll feel more seasonable, as we are into Meteorological Fall.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Parma and Michigan Center:

Today - Some clouds in the morning, increasing clouds during the afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms developing.  We don't anticipate any severe, however, heavy rain and gusty winds are possible with any storm.  High 86.  Wind SW 3-6 MPH.

Tonight - A few passing showers or storm early, these diminish as the night wears on, then mainly cloudy with lows near 66.  Winds SE calm to 5 MPH.

Friday - Lingering clouds and perhaps a quick hit of a shower or a roaming thunderstorm, a bit cooler, high 81.  Winds SE calm to 5 MPH.

Saturday - Partly sunny, an afternoon pop-up shower or storm can't be ruled out, high 84.

Sunday - Mixed sunshine, a bit warmer still, high 86.

Labor Day - Mainly clear with just a few passing clouds, high 87.

Tuesday - Sunny and beautiful a touch less humid, high 83.

Wednesday - Sunny to start, increasing PM clouds, we can't rule out an afternoon shower or two, high 80.

I hope that you have a great day!  Blessings.

Cool It Down...

Good Morning!

Changes definitely on the way weather wise for Michigan, let's dive in and have a look at it all.

SOME SEVERE POSSIBLE:  The Storm Prediction Center has identified Michigan in a standard "slight" risk area for severe storms this afternoon.  These storms will be forming ahead of the trough that is out by the Iowa/Illinois border this morning.  While we don't expect a robust or widespread threat, just understand that there could be a few strong to severe storms with strong straight-line winds and heavy rains.

TEMPERATURES CHANGING:  As things progress today and into tonight/tomorrow, I fully expect that on the back side of these storms, the cooler, drier air that has dropped temperatures and humidity elsewhere will do the same here.  That Canadian air will feel refreshing, shades of Autumn in the air for sure!  Readings don't get out of the 70's tomorrow or Friday!  Today I'm expecting 83 for the high in Jackson, 85 in Ann Arbor, and 84 in Lansing.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and vicinity...

Today - Periods of clouds and sunshine with increasing cloudiness as the day progresses, developing showers and thunderstorms, some could be severe. High 83.

Tonight - Rain tapers off as the night progresses, cooler, low 63.

I'll have a detailed forecast for you this evening!