Hello!
Memorial Day Weekend 2012 is finally here! Whoopee!!! If you are having fireworks this weekend in your county and you are in the area covered by the South Central Michigan Weather Zone, let me know and I will get a forecast up for you. Right now the only counties that I am aware of that have fireworks this weekend in the area are Jackson and Ingham. Here's those two for tonight...
Jackson County: Your fireworks are at the beautiful Cascades in Jackson. I'm forecasting partly to mostly cloudy skies and temperatures around 75, winds ESE 7-12 MPH. No rain expected. It may be a bit muggy, with dewpoint values in the upper 50's.
Ingham County: You'll have another round of post-game fireworks at Cooley Law School Park, after the Lugnuts hopefully slay those Dayton Dragons! Conditions should be an almost carbon copy of Jackson's for tonight around dusk. Partly to mostly cloudy skies with temperatures around 76, winds ESE 7-12 MPH. Again, no rain, and possibly feeling a bit damp, with upper 50's dewpoints.
There you go. It looks like it should be a good night for fireworks watching. You may even be able to catch a glimpse at a star or two to boot! Enjoy, and BE SAFE!
Saturday, May 26, 2012
Air Quality Alert Issued For Sunday 5/27
An Air Quality Alert has been issued for Livingston, Lenawee and Washtenaw Counties for tomorrow, Sunday the 27th. Tomorrow has been designated an Ozone Action Day.
THE MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY HAS
DECLARED SUNDAY...MAY 27TH...TO BE AN ACTION DAY FOR
ELEVATED LEVELS OF OZONE. POLLUTANTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS RANGE.
THE ACTION DAY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING MICHIGAN COUNTIES...
LENAWEE...LIVINGSTON...MACOMB...MONROE...OAKLAND...ST CLAIR...
WASHTENAW...AND WAYNE COUNTIES.
PEOPLE AND BUSINESSES ARE URGED TO AVOID ACTIVITIES WHICH LEAD
TO OZONE FORMATION. THESE ACTIVITIES INCLUDE...REFUELING VEHICLES
OR TOPPING OFF WHEN REFUELING...USING GASOLINE POWERED LAWN
EQUIPMENT...AND USING CHARCOAL LIGHTER FLUID. POSITIVE ACTIVITIES
INCLUDE...CAR POOLING...BIKING TO WORK...DELAYING OR COMBINING
ERRANDS AND USING WATER BASED PAINTS.
IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT ACTIVE CHILDREN AND ADULTS...AND PERSONS
WITH RESPIRATORY DISEASES SUCH AS ASTHMA...LIMIT PROLONGED
OUTDOOR EXERTION.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE THE MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF
NATURAL RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT AIR QUALITY INDEX PAGE ON THE
INTERNET AT...HTTP://WWW.DEQMIAIR.ORG
A Warm, Showery Holiday Weekend...
Good Morning!
BUSTED: I REALLY hate when my forecast gets busted. I own up to them every time though, to keep things honest. I am not yet a schooled meteorologist, and I don't just copy the National Weather Service forecasts, even though I look at a lot of the same data they have to create their forecasts. I do like to match wits with the trained meteorologists, and so far I have been doing fairly well keeping close to them. Not this trip. I predicted that we would see some scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm, which verified, but I also said that they wouldn't show until this afternoon. BUST. Well, we have a radar full of scattered precipitation right now, and it's still morning. Let's take a look and see if we can sort this out with a deeper dive...
TEMPERATURES: Today we see warmer temperatures than Friday, and Sunday and Monday are very warm. The good news, we shouldn't be quite as hot as originally forecast. We'll still see 90, no doubt, but I don't think we edge quite as close to triple digits with the heat index values as first expected. In reality, it'll all probably feel about the same to you, and you'll still want a cold drink handy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms each day may put a kink in holiday outdoor plans. After that, upper 70's Tuesday, and a big cool down from hump day on, with daytime highs that don't make it out of the 60's making you reach for a jacket to toss in the car.
RAIN: We have some of that in the area now, and we'll keep it around here and there throughout the day. We could see some rain around fireworks time tonight of the scattered to numerous shower kind. My thinking is even with that, there should still be a window of a couple of dry hours to squeeze in a show, as both Lansing and Jackson are slated for displays tonight. We'll have to see what shakes out with the afternoon heating of the atmosphere.
The National Weather Service has upgraded the amounts of rain in their 5 day forecast, and I think this looks about right for where we're headed, with the early development of rain today. Most areas throughout South Central Michigan are expected to pick up about anywhere from a half-inch to a little over an inch the next 5 days. Here's that map for you.
SEVERE WEATHER: It's been awhile since we've had to do this, but we'll take a look at maps from the Storm Prediction Center for all three days in the forecast window. Michigan has some sort of storm possibility each day of the next three. Here's a look at the maps from SPC, valid each day at 8AM as always:
This is today's forecast, with just the "general" risk for Michigan. The greatest risk today from storms that fire today would be heavy rain and hail:
Here's the map for tomorrow, again, just the "general" risk, low end 5% chances, heavy rain, wind and hail still the main threats.
Here's day three, Memorial Day, with the risk bumped up a notch to "slight". This percentages map shows us in 15% probability of severe weather. Bear in mind that you don't need to see percentages way up there for severe weather to occur. This would indicate hail, high wind, and a tornado threat.
Here's a look at things right now, the visible satellite image with the NEXRAD composite overlay on top, and a look at the Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar image for you as well.
And here's the forecast for Jackson County:
For today, mainly cloudy skies, maybe a few peeks of sun, periods of scattered to numerous showers and possibly an embedded thunderstorm, high 83, winds ESE 7-12 MPH.
Tonight, mainly cloudy skies continue, still the chance of scattered to numerous showers or a buried thunderstorm. Lows roll back to 60, SSE winds 5-10 MPH.
Sunday, periods of clouds and sun, very warm and humid, a chance of scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm, high 91. Heat index values will be well into the 90's with dew points in the mid 60's. Winds SSW 7-14 MPH.
Sunday night, skies clear a bit for a peek at stars, still the chance of a scattered shower or storm until about 1AM, low 68, winds SW 5-10 MPH.
Memorial Day, partly sunny early, then clouds increase with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, warm with highs approaching 91, heat index values will be well into the 90's again.
Tuesday, cloudy skies with showers and thunderstorms early, then clearing slowly, cooler, with a high of 78.
Wednesday, more sun than clouds, breezy and much cooler, high 71.
Thursday, a mix of clouds and sun, cooler still, high 66.
There's a look at your forecast for the next six days. I hope your Saturday is great. Expect a fireworks forecast later this afternoon for Jackson and Ingham counties here in Michigan. Blessings!
BUSTED: I REALLY hate when my forecast gets busted. I own up to them every time though, to keep things honest. I am not yet a schooled meteorologist, and I don't just copy the National Weather Service forecasts, even though I look at a lot of the same data they have to create their forecasts. I do like to match wits with the trained meteorologists, and so far I have been doing fairly well keeping close to them. Not this trip. I predicted that we would see some scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm, which verified, but I also said that they wouldn't show until this afternoon. BUST. Well, we have a radar full of scattered precipitation right now, and it's still morning. Let's take a look and see if we can sort this out with a deeper dive...
TEMPERATURES: Today we see warmer temperatures than Friday, and Sunday and Monday are very warm. The good news, we shouldn't be quite as hot as originally forecast. We'll still see 90, no doubt, but I don't think we edge quite as close to triple digits with the heat index values as first expected. In reality, it'll all probably feel about the same to you, and you'll still want a cold drink handy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms each day may put a kink in holiday outdoor plans. After that, upper 70's Tuesday, and a big cool down from hump day on, with daytime highs that don't make it out of the 60's making you reach for a jacket to toss in the car.
RAIN: We have some of that in the area now, and we'll keep it around here and there throughout the day. We could see some rain around fireworks time tonight of the scattered to numerous shower kind. My thinking is even with that, there should still be a window of a couple of dry hours to squeeze in a show, as both Lansing and Jackson are slated for displays tonight. We'll have to see what shakes out with the afternoon heating of the atmosphere.
The National Weather Service has upgraded the amounts of rain in their 5 day forecast, and I think this looks about right for where we're headed, with the early development of rain today. Most areas throughout South Central Michigan are expected to pick up about anywhere from a half-inch to a little over an inch the next 5 days. Here's that map for you.
SEVERE WEATHER: It's been awhile since we've had to do this, but we'll take a look at maps from the Storm Prediction Center for all three days in the forecast window. Michigan has some sort of storm possibility each day of the next three. Here's a look at the maps from SPC, valid each day at 8AM as always:
This is today's forecast, with just the "general" risk for Michigan. The greatest risk today from storms that fire today would be heavy rain and hail:
Here's the map for tomorrow, again, just the "general" risk, low end 5% chances, heavy rain, wind and hail still the main threats.
Here's day three, Memorial Day, with the risk bumped up a notch to "slight". This percentages map shows us in 15% probability of severe weather. Bear in mind that you don't need to see percentages way up there for severe weather to occur. This would indicate hail, high wind, and a tornado threat.
Here's a look at things right now, the visible satellite image with the NEXRAD composite overlay on top, and a look at the Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar image for you as well.
Visible Satellite and NEXRAD Regional Composite Overlay
Grand Rapids NEXRAD Reflectivity
And here's the forecast for Jackson County:
For today, mainly cloudy skies, maybe a few peeks of sun, periods of scattered to numerous showers and possibly an embedded thunderstorm, high 83, winds ESE 7-12 MPH.
Tonight, mainly cloudy skies continue, still the chance of scattered to numerous showers or a buried thunderstorm. Lows roll back to 60, SSE winds 5-10 MPH.
Sunday, periods of clouds and sun, very warm and humid, a chance of scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm, high 91. Heat index values will be well into the 90's with dew points in the mid 60's. Winds SSW 7-14 MPH.
Sunday night, skies clear a bit for a peek at stars, still the chance of a scattered shower or storm until about 1AM, low 68, winds SW 5-10 MPH.
Memorial Day, partly sunny early, then clouds increase with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, warm with highs approaching 91, heat index values will be well into the 90's again.
Tuesday, cloudy skies with showers and thunderstorms early, then clearing slowly, cooler, with a high of 78.
Wednesday, more sun than clouds, breezy and much cooler, high 71.
Thursday, a mix of clouds and sun, cooler still, high 66.
There's a look at your forecast for the next six days. I hope your Saturday is great. Expect a fireworks forecast later this afternoon for Jackson and Ingham counties here in Michigan. Blessings!
Friday, May 25, 2012
Cool Friday, Some Weekend Sizzle...
Good Morning!
After a warm and breezy day yesterday, we'll be a touch cooler as a cold front moves though the area. Memorial Day weekend is shaping up to be a hot one, with temperatures around 90 or better, and heat indexes pushing triple digits. One deeper dive coming up!
TEMPERATURES: Today we stay seasonably mild, with temperatures in the low 80's and dewpoints that stay in the 50's, so it will feel a bit damp, but not too bad. After that, temperatures, humidity and dewpoints all start going up, making for a steamy holiday. Heat index values Memorial Day will be right around 100! After that, temperatures fall off dramatically with readings rolling back into the high 60's!?
RAIN: The National Weather Service is thinking that the rain for the next few days will track north of us here in South Central Michigan. We are forecast to pick up around a half inch of rain between now and 8AM Wednesday. Here's the map from the NWS:
Regarding timing, there will be a chance of showers and storms each day for the next few days, with the best chance at thunderstorms on Sunday. At this point we shouldn't see severe storms, but due to a juicy air mass with lots of moisture, it's a good bet that any storms that do fire could be strong.
SEVERE WEATHER: Yesterday in the forecast I mentioned that the Storm Prediction Center had already identified a severe storm risk for Memorial Day that involved this part of the world. I also told you that it was nothing to be overly concerned with yet, as that was still a ways out. At least for now, don't worry about it. That bullseye has disappeared and shifted further west. Just the regular "general" risk for storms for Michigan today and a 5% chance tomorrow. Here's those maps, valid at 8AM each day:
Any storms that form after today will be strong, as moister air works it's way in here from the south, pushing dew points well into the 60's.
Here's a look at the visible satellite image with just a few high clouds on it:
Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar is quiet at this hour.
Here's the local forecast for Jackson and surrounding communities including Spring Arbor and Pleasant Lake.
Today, periods of clouds and sunshine, high 81, winds become NW 8-15 MPH.
Tonight, a mix of clouds and stars, low 58, winds become NE 6-12 MPH.
Saturday, mostly cloudy skies with a few peeks of sunshine, perhaps the chance of a isolated shower or pop-up thunderstorm in the afternoon, warmer and more humid, high 84, winds
NE 5-10 MPH.
Saturday night, still mainly cloudy, humid, lows only down to 64 with ESE winds 5-10 MPH.
Sunday, mostly sunny with a few passing clouds, hot and humid, high 92, heat index values will approach 100.
Memorial Day, more clouds than sun, continued sticky with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, high 91.
Tuesday, cloudy skies and much cooler with a chance of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, high only 76.
Wednesday, mostly sunny skies, cooler, high 68.
That's a look at your forecast for the next six, days, I do hope you have a good Friday! Blessings.
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