Plenty Of Action This Coming Week...

Good Evening!

Cold and a bit snowy in the area right now, but I can say that the pattern will be changing sometime soon, as we'll see some moderation in temperatures, but we'll also be bringing some precipitation into the area every 2 to 3 days.  Lets have a look at what's going on:

COLD AND A TOUCH OF SNOW RIGHT NOW:  Water vapor satellite image showing some moisture in the air here in Michigan, but the big players on the field are the winters storm system that made life miserable for our friends down in the Deep South, which has thankfully pushed out to sea over the Atlantic for the most part, and then a new system working into the interior west and the Rockies.

Winter Storm Watches are up for the mountains in Colorado, Utah, Montana and Nevada.  Here's a look at the current Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar:

As per usual this time of year, you see some lake effect snow, as cold winds blowing from the northwest come across the warmer waters of Lake Michigan.  This activity is extending all the way to the I-69 corridor, and I don't expect it to taper off for awhile yet.

MILDER AIR ON THE WAY:  We'll start to see the temperatures notching up as the new work week starts,  Monday, we should climb to near freezing, and then we'll add about 10 degrees to it and get up into the 40's.  Readings will run from 38 to 44 pretty much for the entire week, but the issue with that, is that as I said early on, we'll have to cope with a....

POTENTIAL MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION ALL WEEK:  Every day this coming week we'll see a chance for some rain or show showers, we may even have a wintry mix thrown in just to keep things interesting as well.  Let's have a look at some data for that.

Here's some images for you from the forecast computers....

This is the Hi-Res NAM forecast model for 1 PM tomorrow afternoon.  You see that he's thinking the lake effect snow should stop, and we'll actually catch a breather.  But the respite probably won't be very long.  We'll get into Monday with nothing falling from the sky, but after PM drive, back at it...

This is the same forecast model, advanced to about 10 PM EST on Monday the 10th.  You see light to moderate snow back into the area again, covering a good chunk of both peninsulas.  I expect this event to persist into Tuesday.  Don't be shocked to see upwards of 5" of snow in total on Tuesday.  I'll have to check as we get more data tomorrow and Monday, because track and moisture could require that I tinker with new snowfall amounts.  I'm thinking that 3" would be the average across the board, with heavier amounts as you travel up toward and past I-96.  A couple of forecast solutions I have seen are suggesting wintry mix, and even some rain with this system, so we'll need to refine our forecast on this for sure.

Looking past Tuesday's system, how about another one on Thursday?  Initial thinking is a similar experience to Tuesday's event.  I'm wondering about the track of this one a bit more though, because I have noted a bit of flip-flop between model runs that suggests this one may be a flip from rain to snow, as opposed to Tuesday, which should be a snow to rain affair.  Additionally, how the air stacks up temperature wise up to about 8000 feet above the ground will play into this also.  Here's the FutureCast graphic off the GEM forecast model for that one...

Now this model is the one used by our friends north of the border in Environment Canada,  It's their answer to the GFS model used here in the USA, and I like to look at it sometimes as a check and balance to our data,  The GFS is actually pretty close to this one, with the exception of the rain/snow split being a hair north of where you see it here (pink shading), and a bit more widespread.  Bottom line, expect Tuesday and Thursday to be messy in some way, shape or form.

LOOKING AHEAD:  General thinking as we wind down the work week is that a strong polar high that has been massing north of the border kicks the freezer door back open, sending readings back south of freezing.  Ahead of it, some showers then we change over to snow.  The system is suggesting stormy weather to the south, and the high being a 1045 millibar high coming in would be VERY strong, so we may see quite the unsettled mess before that gets in here.  Whew!  That was a lot.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Parma and Chelsea:

Tonight - Cloudy skies, any lake effect snow lingering should start to taper off late, lows roll back to near 4 above.

Sunday - Partly to mainly cloudy and continued cold, high only 17.

Monday - Overcast skies, not as cold.  Snow starts late and changes to either a wintry mix or even some rain.  High 26.

Tuesday - Continued cloudy, warmer still, mixed bag of precipitation, snow should be about 3" with some locally higher amounts possible, high 44.

Wednesday - Cloudy, not quite as mild, a wintry mix still lingering in a few spots.  High only 38.

Thursday - Still gray, a wintry mix or some snow expected.  High 42.

Friday - Cloudy, some light to moderate snow.  High 39.

There's your forecast.  I hope that you have a great night!

Rainy Start To '17

Good Afternoon!

What will be going on for the New Year's Eve and the start of 2017?  Let's jump in and have a look.

MIXED BAG NOW:  As I write this for you around 2 PM EST, visible satellite showing some stratiform clouds north of a line from roughly Detroit to Sturgis.  The south zone reporting clear skies, north zone reporting clouds and overcast.  Temperatures are fairly uniform, with readings in the low to mid 40's.  The warm spots are along and south of I-94, with Ann Arbor, Marshall and Coldwater checking on with 44 degrees.

A LITTLE BIT OF PRECIPITATION NEARBY:  While I am not seeing anything in the blog area right now, we do note a little bit of light rain northwest of Lansing, then working into the southern part of the state south of I-94...

I really don't expect this to amount to much of anything, and I further expect it to stay fairly quiet for New Year's celebrating tonight and tomorrow.

BIG PICTURE:  The upper air pattern is quite zonal, with upper winds almost due west and howling across the Midwest, on the order of 90 knots across the state at 18,000 feet.  That means that any disturbances that would come through, such as the one with the clouds and light precipitation, would be here and gone in short order.  Not so fast though, we'll change that up for the first work week of 2017 though.

CHANGING PATTERN:  Early next week we'll see winds turn more southwesterly, we get some moisture in here ahead of a system that will be way back in Montana and the Dakotas, but impacting us nonetheless.  A little bit of early de-stabilization will touch off some rain showers, some pockets may even pick up a snow shower, all of that happening on Monday after 4 PM.  Here's what that could look like:

If this Hi-Res NAM model FutureCast verifies, it'll be scattered showers in the area Monday evening.  As you can see, the colder air is confined to the U.P. at this time, so snow should not be an issue - until later on.  We'll see this round of showers come and go, then another one on Tuesday afternoon.  That's the one we'll need to watch.  Colder air will be surging in along with that rain, so as temperatures fall, the snowflakes will start to as well, Tuesday evening.  Changeover will be a wild card for PM drive, so be aware.  I would not be shocked to see an inch or two of snow on the ground for you Wednesday afternoon or evening as that cold front pushes through.

TEMPERATURES?:  Enjoy the mild stuff while you can.  When that front moves through, the freezer door will be wide open!  We'll see readings dip back into the 30's for Sunday and Monday, a warm up into the 40's when that wind turns more southerly and the rains come in Tuesday, then after that, you can forget about getting above 25 until the weekend at the soonest!

Here's the forecast:

New Year's Eve Night - Mix of clouds and stars, seasonably cold, lows near 23.

New Year's Day - Cloudy.  High 39.

Monday - Cloudy, rainy.  High 42.

Tuesday - Mainly Cloudy, unseasonably mild.  Scattered showers.  High 51.

Wednesday - Overcast and much colder.  Highs only up to 22.

Thursday - Continued overcast, colder still.  High 18.

Friday - Clouds, cold.  High 19.

There's a look at your forecast for the last day of 2016, and the start of 2017.  Have a good one!  Please be safe when celebrating tonight!

Merry Christmas!

Quick Look For Friday/Saturday

Good Friday Morning!

I hope you didn't eat too much turkey yesterday, even though that word, turkey, describes the weather for us for the next couple of days.

QUICK OVERVIEW:  Here's what we have on tap.  Cloudy across the area right now with a few spotty showers here and there, have a look at the current NEXRAD image from Grand Rapids:

Just a few spotty showers on the north side of the Lansing Metro, with more coverage as you work west on I-96 toward Grand Rapids.  As the day progresses and an upper disturbance works into Michigan though, we should see those showers increase in coverage...

It would not shock me to see this fall as a bit of freezing rain or even have a few snowflakes mixed in with it, based on the forecast air temperatures right around freezing.  This activity moves out and it just remains seasonably mild afterward, with a chance at some rain each day right thru the forecast window, as we can't rule out a lonely shower in the midst of the clouds.

Today - Cloudy, periods of showers, a few snowflakes may mix in.  High 39.

Satuday - Mainly Cloudy, an isolated shower possible.  High 43.

Rainy Hump Day...Better Weekend Coming

Good Morning!

Damp and chilly is the rule for the next few days, but one more very brief hit of milder air works in before we get a taste of whats to come as far as winter weather.  Let's dive in and have a look at it.

RAINY, COLD:  Right now in South Central Michigan, no sun to be found, but plenty of rain and low temperatures.  Here's a look at that for you:

Heavier showers just offshore from Muskegon, warmest temperature in South Central Michigan is 42 degrees in Coldwater.  No sunshine until you get up toward the thumb, and they will be losing that as the day progresses.

BIG PICTURE:  Let's have a look at the forecast map from the National Weather Service, and then we'll discuss a couple of things.

The big player on the field is the low over the Iowa/Nebraska line.  The warm front sweeping up toward Michigan is what's triggering the showers and cloudy skies out of ahead of it.  I know you're looking at that rain/snow mix forecast line that roughly follows I-96 across the state!  I don't see that just yet, but the chances are definitely there!  

Hi-Res NAM model FutureCast for 8 PM tonight.  As we lose the daytime heating, here you see the model suggesting some showers and thunder in our area if this verifies, but if you look up north of say, Mount Pleasant/Clare area, there is some snow embedded in the mass of precipitation.  The second part of this is don't be surprised to see the storm track differently than what this model is thinking, and as always with winter weather, that will move your rain/snow line some.

ANY SEVERE WEATHER?:  Not for the next three days, and quite honestly, we're pretty much done with severe weather in the warm season sense.  Now it's time to start worrying about winter storm systems and such.

HALLOWEEN WEEKEND:  Saturday should be a good day and evening for goblins, ghouls and superheroes. We'll see some mixed sunshine and readings warming up into the low to mid 60's, which is about 10 degrees above the average highs of 52-55.  I'd keep the umbrella handy though, because we will introduce the chance of some widely scattered or scattered showers into the picture starting Friday an right on through into the new week.

LOOKING AHEAD:  After we get this system out of here, cool, with a break until the weekend, as I alluded to above.  We'll see another disturbance slide across the Great Lakes just on the northern side of the international border.  This will be the primary driver behind the possible raindrops over the next few days.  After that, not much to speak of until November 3rd/4th.  The thinking is a disturbance coming out of the northern Rockies becomes a bona fide surface low around Omaha and marches almost due east.  If that look verifies, we'll see some showers and a possible storm along with it.  Temperatures will remain fairly seasonable, no heat waves or cold snaps expected.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and vicinity:

Today - Cloudy, chilly.  Showers and an embedded thunderstorm possible.  High only 46.

Tonight - Cool and rainy.  Lows near 38.

Thursday - Continued mainly cloudy, still a bit cool.  High 51.

Friday - Periods of clouds and sun, warming.  High 58.

Saturday - More sun than clouds to start, but clouds thicken throughout the day, warmer.  We can;t rule out the mention of a shower or two late.  High 64.

Sunday - Clearing skies, some passing clouds still around though, some widely scattered showers.  Not as warm, high only 57.

Monday - Periods of clouds and sun, mild.  High 61.

Tuesday - Partly sunny, warmer.  High 63.

That's what we have for you today, make it a great one!