Comfy & Summery...

Good Afternoon!

Plenty of warm weather to go around today, but not as hot as it has been.  Let's see what's going on right now.

NOT TOO BAD NOW:  Quite a bit cooler than what we have had in past days.  Most stations checking on with clear skies and readings in the mid to upper 70's...

All the winds are northerly.  Lansing 77; Mason 74; Battle Creek 75, Marshall, 77; Jackson 76; Ann Arbor 76; Coldwater & Hillsdale 76; Adrian 77.  Let's take a look and see what has changed.

BACK OF THE RIDGE:  Right now we are in cool Canadian air that is coming down the back of the ridge that has set up over much of the US.  Underneath that, readings are about 15 degrees warmer, and we are starting to see showers and thunderstorms popping...

Just look at some of those readings!  In Illinois, the SPI is Springfield, and that's 92 degrees over a 73 dew point, which is good for a heat index of 101!  In Iowa, DSM is Des Moines, 92 degrees over a dew point of 68.  That heat index is 96.  Just miserable.  We do note on this picture some thunderstorms starting to fire in South Central Illinois.  I don't anticipate us having to deal with them though.

SOME SCATTERED STARTING TUESDAY:  The next few days look to be your typical warm weather pattern.  Some sunshine in the morning, with clouds developing and increasing during the afternoon, and some PM showers or thunderstorms as a result.  We'll have to bump up the rain chances through the middle of the week though.  Each day Tuesday through Thursday will see at least an even money chance of showers and thunder.  I don't expect any severe at this time, but you should always expect the unexpected when it comes to warm season storms!

If we take a look at this GFS Forecast model FutureCast, we see that some showers and such are in the cards for the south zone of the blog Tuesday afternoon.  We'll keep that chance around during the afternoon and evening hours each day thru Thursday, but I do think we see a break in the rains after dark when everything cools off and the atmosphere stabilizes again in the absence of heating.

LOOKING DOWN THE LINE:  We'll see seasonable temperatures as the ridge in the middle third of the country stays more or less put, this will give us the chance of showers and thunderstorms through the middle part of the week, then the weekend is looking mainly sunny, with temperatures staying right around average.

Forecast:

Tonight - Clear and a bit chilly, lows near 46.

Monday - Sunny and splendid, mild with low humidity.  Temperatures near 77.

Monday Night - Increasing clouds, we can't rule a shower or clap of thunder during.  Lows near 60.

Tuesday - AM sunshine, periods of showers or a thunderstorm during the afternoon.  High 79.

Wednesday - Overcast.  Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.  High 82.

Thursday - Continued mainly cloudy with some scattered showers or a thunderstorm.  High 79.

Friday - Sunny and seasonable.  High 80.

Saturday - More sunshine, continued pleasant.  High 81.

There's your forecast for the next six days.  I hope that you have a great day!

Some Severe Possible

Good Morning!

Heads up today, we have a "marginal" risk of severe weather in lower Michigan today.  Let's look at the map from the Storm Prediction Center...

As you can see, just across the lake, a "slight" risk of severe storms that goes from north of Milwaukee. down into Chicago, down toward Bloomington-Normal and Springfield.  For us, the marginal risk roughly follows I-96 from west to east.

We don't expect any tornadic weather, but be ready for some hail and straight-line wind damage as the primary modes of severe.

Cloudy skies today, with periods of showers and thunderstorms, some could be severe.  High 72.

Tonight - Clouds, storms tapering off to the occasional shower.  Low 48.

Another Winner, Then Cooler...

Good Evening!

Another beautiful day in the area, with the warmest temperatures of the Spring being posted so far.  Looking around the area right now, we see mid to upper 70's across the board with clear skies.  Let's talk about what's on tap.

MORE FULL-ON SPRING WEATHER:  We'll keep the pattern that we have been in going for a few more days.  The upper air pattern is set up in what's called an Omega Block right now.  Let's look at it:

The ridge is stuck in a traffic jam thanks to the upper low well offshore in the Atlantic.  Until that thing starts moving, the pattern can't progress.  The mild southerly flow under the ridge will persist for a bit longer yet, and the low that dropped more serious snows out west will stay over that part of the world, keeping them cold and cloudy.  Result for Michigan?  More great weather!

ANOTHER WARM ONE TOMORROW:  With the ridge still in place, I fully expect a repeat of today, with sunshine and readings back up into the upper 70's lower 80's.  Just the slightest hint of an upper wave tries to do a ridge runner bit and scoot around the periphery of the ridge, but with no dynamic support to start anything, maybe just a couple of PM clouds in the area and that's about it.  Lows only roll back to the mid 50's tomorrow night.

COOL IT OFF JUST A BIT:  We'll see just the beginnings of some movement in the big pattern I showed you above.  The ridge manages to elbow east a bit, turning our winds more westerly and dropping the temperatures back to something more seasonable.  You can expect readings to hold in the 60's Tuesday, with some passing clouds, and maybe a lonely shower somewhere.  I don't see any big headaches right now though.  Keep the 60's in the area through Wednesday, but then we see a change as the upper pattern finally resets...

WET THURSDAY?:  The system that unloaded snow in the Rockies finally gets to move into the Midwest on Thursday, as the upper ridging breaks down some and the flow creeps along in zonal fashion.  The more direct west to east winds bring that system in with some scattered to even numerous showers on Wednesday, temperatures do hold in the 60's until the frontal boundary passes through.

LOOKING AHEAD:  Get the system through and out on Friday, with cooler readings topping out at 59.  Then we see the flow turn more southerly again, pushing our temperatures back up into the 68-71 range for Sunday, with a high of 61 for Saturday.  I really think you'll be in good shape to plan outdoor activity this weekend, just have the jacket or hoodie in the car for early in the day.

I hope that you have a great night and a great Monday tomorrow!

Quiet After This...

Hello There!

The wet and dreary weather that we have had will continue, as the storm that created blizzard conditions in Colorado and unloaded 2 feet of snow in it's wake there is now about here with us.  Let's have a closer look...

CLOUDS AND RAIN:  Here's a look at the current satellite and radar composite image:

You can see the large precipitation shield stretching all the way back to northern Illinois.  Even though the radar returns are coded as all rain by color here, you need to know that along and north of I-96 between Grand Rapids and Lansing, that is snow.  On the other side, south of a line from Fenton to Lansing, that's all rain.  I suspect it will remain that, there could be a touch of freezing precip mixed in but I don't expect much if any of that.

STORM WORKING THROUGH:  Here's a look at the upper air setup.  You can see the big player in the game right now, that storm system coming out of the Rockies...

The base of the trough is in north central Missouri, and it will be pulling a cold front along the southern tier of states that will cause some severe weather problems for our friends in the Deep South - a couple of tornadoes are possible in Dixie Alley today.  Nothing like that for us though.  Just the rain, then on the back side of the system, some wraparound snow is possible into tonight, but that should not amount to a whole lot if any does show up.

FAIRLY QUIET AFTER THIS:  As this storm system departs, I don't really see a whole lot to talk about until a week from today...

Here's the next weather maker, the last day of March.  A deep 980 millibar surface low centered over the Minnesota/Wisconsin line will have rain out ahead of it in the warm sector, and some snow behind it on the back side in the cold air.

I hope you have a great rest of your day!

Another Storm As Winter Fights The Calendar?

Good Afternoon!

A few clouds in the area, but still some sunshine.  We'll see our clouds increase as the day progresses, and by midweek, a storm system bringing rain, and possibly some snow to the northern counties in the blog area.  Let's have a look at it all.

MIXED SUN RIGHT NOW:  Fairly uniform temperatures in the area right now, and readings from 37 to 40, depending on where you look.  I'll show you the visible satellite and the current conditions...

A band of clear skies separates passing clouds that are located from roughly I-94 south, and from just off I-96 north across the state, with northwesterly breezes.  The good news is that there's no precipitation in those, and I expect things to stay that way for the next day or two.  You basically see today's forecast in the picture, just move the temperatures up into the low to mid 40's and you'll have it.

SWITCH IT UP MID WEEK:  Tomorrow morning, we note a fairly broad surface low out over the northern Great Plains start to sharpen up and put it in gear to move east.  Before it does that, it actually retrogrades a bit to the southwest and deepens.  Some rain showers will develop in Michigan courtesy of a disturbance working through the larger flow, even though the low is way out by Colorado and Nebraska!  Have a look at this:

If this verifies, the GFS is telling us to expect showers south of a line from roughly Pentwater to Bay City.

That surface low holds fairly steady at 990 millibars, and then it hopscotches due east until it hits the triple point where Illinois, Iowa, and Missouri all come together, then it turns more northeast...

If this is right, the low is just west of Chicago at 8 AM Thursday, and it has most of the Lower Peninsula in rain.  Now as that low continues it's trip northeast, we could see some wraparound snow on the back end of the as that system gets away from us.  Let's change the lens we're looking at this through and get a bit more detailed.

Here's a look at the NAM forecast model at 8 PM Thursday.  You see here the wraparound snow working into Michigan from the west as the low departs and we get more into the cold sector, and you also see more intense rains for far southeastern Michigan and into Ohio.  This is why we have a Winter Storm Watch active for Clinton, Eaton, and Ingham counties.

LOOKING DOWN THE LINE:  After we get this out of here, we bring in another band of rain and snow late Friday/early Saturday as a disturbance slides north of Michigan proper, staying largely in Canada.  It will pull a trailing front that will have a narrowly focused band of precipitation, looks like rain showers that flip to snow after frontal passage as the colder air gets settled in.  Beyond that, indications are that we stay rain/snow free until the end of the month.

Forecast:

Today - Increasing clouds PM, we can't rule out a stray shower or two around sunset, high 51.

Tonight - Some scattered showers developing, lows hold steady around 48.

Tuesday - Mainly cloudy, more scattered showers about, high 55.

We'll have the extended forecast for you later,  Have a great day!