Warm & Wet....

Good Evening!

Mild conditions have moved into the area, with some cloudy skies.  Temperatures still holding up into the 40's and even a couple of 50's as we get into Tuesday morning.  The next issue to worry with will be rain and possible flooding.  Let's talk about it.

FLOOD ADVISORY ACTIVE: 

FLOOD ADVISORY 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 
749 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016 

...The flood advisory continues for the following rivers in Southwest 
Lower Michigan... 

Grand River At Ionia affecting Ionia County 
Grand River At Lowell affecting Kent County 
Sycamore Creek At Holt affecting Ingham County 
Looking Glass River Near Eagle affecting Clinton County 
Maple River At Maple Rapids affecting Clinton County 
Thornapple River Above Hastings affecting Barry County 

...The National Weather Service in Grand Rapids has issued a flood 
advisory for the following rivers in Southwest Lower Michigan... 

Red Cedar River At East Lansing affecting Ingham County 

.Snowmelt today and tomorrow and rain Wednesday into Thursday will 
cause several rivers to rise above bankfull. There is the potential 
for rainfall to exceed one inch by Thursday. The following forecast 
is based on observed and forecast 24 hour precipitation as well as 
snowmelt runoff. The expected rainfall for Wednesday into Thursday 
will be incorporated into the flood advisory update Tuesday morning. 
River levels may crest higher than currently predicted if heavy 
rainfall materializes. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... 

Safety message...Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. 

A flood advisory means minor flooding is possible and rivers are 
forecast to exceed bankfull. If you are in the advisory area remain 
alert to possible flooding... or the possibility of the advisory 
being upgraded to a warning. Report observed flooding to local 
emergency services or law enforcement and request they pass this 
information on to the National Weather Service.

Plenty of water will be on the move the next couple of days.  Here's why:

BRING ON A RIDGE:  Ridging is set up over Michigan right now, with warm moist air from the south being transported in via winds thru the bottom 5 to 7 thousand feet.  Readings will be in the low to mid 60's through Wednesday, perhaps even Thursday.  Along with that, a virtually guaranteed shot at showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday as well.

STILL SEASONABLY MILD:  Average temperature is 44 degrees in this part of the world this time of year, and I don't see daytime highs falling out of the 50's at least through the weekend!

I'll have more for you later.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES POSTED

Good Evening.

All counties in the blog area are under a Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM March 2nd.  Heavy snow is falling near the lake, and in Calhoun and Eaton counties right now...

You have snowfall rates here that are working from .25 to .50" of snow in an HOUR.  The heavier accumulations are along I-94 and I-69, so you need to be careful if you have to travel.

365.24...

A brief break before I talk about our next storm working into the area to talk about this every 4 year occurrence...Leap Day.

Long story short, the 29th of February is important because it keeps our lives straight by keeping our calendar in sync with the heavens.

It's basic science that you probably learned in middle school, but here's a refresher.  We know that Earth moves around the sun in 365.24 days.  This is the Solar Year.  Our calendar is 365 days even.  So we essentially have a quarter-day error every year.  We fix that by allowing the error to build to .98, and every fourth year, we zero it out with a February 29th.

That, in a nutshell, is why we have a leap year every four years.  More winter weather on the way.

Winter Storm Tracking Toward S. Central Michigan...

Good Evening!

Though I really wish it weren't so, the area needs to brace for a significant round of winter weather.m  Let's get right to what's going on.

WINTER STORM WARNING:  The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Warning for all counties in the blog area except Hillsdale and Lenawee until 11 AM on February 25th.  Hillsdale and Lenawee are under Winter Weather Advisories.  Let's see what we have...

LOW DOWN:  There is a deep surface low currently causing severe weather in the Gulf States, especially Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama:

This first map is the Storm Prediction Center forecast for severe weather through 7 AM tomorrow morning.  As you can see, all the action is in the Deep  South and along the Gulf Coast.  We'll have a bit more time to prepare.

Here's the forecast map off the GFS computer model.  As you can see the low is right over ther triple point of Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi.  That's bad news for those folks,  All modes of sever weather are possible, including tornadoes,  There have already been some tornado warnings issued there, and those are on-going as I write this,  I digress though, let's advance the models in time just a little bit...

This is the GFS FutureCast at 1 PM tomorrow afternoon,  You can see that the snow is underway in the area, and you can also see why Hillsdale and Lenawee counties don't yet have a Winter Storm Warning issued.  They may be in rain still!!!

I have to cut this short for now, but stay tuned as this situation evolves.  Prepare for 6-10" of snow if you are under a Winter Storm Warning.

More To Come...

Full-On Freeze!!!

Good Evening!

Some of the coldest air yet is sitting over Michigan and the Great Lakes, and I hate to say it, but you've probably figured out, it's not going anywhere anytime soon.  Let's take a look at what we have...

WINTER WEATHER MISCHIEF CLOSE BY:  The good news is that the blog area per se does NOT have any winter weather alerts active at the moment, but all you need to do is look west toward the lake, and the northwesterly winds coming across that warmer lake water have the snow box in all sorts of mess.  Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for Allegan and Van Buren counties, and any county touching one of those two has Winter Weather Advisories up.  These will be for lake effect snow.  Things get more interesting tomorrow...

LAKE EFFECT INVASION:  The lake effect snow that is causing such a headache for the western counties along the lake shore will make the AM commute tomorrow an adventure, as the snow bands push further inland on increasing northwesterly winds.  1-3" is possible in the snow box tonight, and up to 2" is possible tomorrow as far east as I-69.  This snow will be blowing and drifting though, so use caution heading into work tomorrow.

IT STAYS BITTER COLD:  If you're looking for a break in this cold snap - good luck with that.  The upper air pattern is set such that the cold air continues to stay locked in place over the Great Lakes, upper Midwest, and New England.  Have a look at these maps:

This is output from the 18Z run of the GFS forecast model.  You can see the cold air in the whites and purples.  This suggests a high of 20 tomorrow and 14 on Saturday in Grand Rapids, with 21 and 13 in Detroit.  Single digit nighttime lows near zero Saturday and Sunday night. Sunshine will be in short supply over the next seven days as well.  All in all, your typical mid-winter blues kind of forecast for South Central Michigan.

SUSPECT FOR SNOW:  Based on the forecast data, each night from Sunday night through mid-week is suspect for snow, as a series of Clippers zip through the area.  You know the drill...a quick shot of snow or two every 24-36 hours, typically short-lived and 2" or less inland, a bit more toward the lake as long as the lake effect snow machine is cranked up, and it is.

LOOKING AHEAD:  I really wish I had good news or a major pattern shift in the cards for you, but I don't, not in this 7 day window anyway.  Consolation prize is that readings get back to their just above freezing norms starting Wednesday.

Here's the forecast:

Tonight - Cloudy cold.  Lows near 8.

Friday - Mainly cloudy continued cold.  High only 16.

Friday Night - Cloudy and frigid.  Lows near 5.

Saturday - Overcast and cold.  High 15.

Sunday - Mainly cloudy, a touch warmer, PM snow develops.  High 18.

Monday - Cloudy, snow tapers off late day, warmer.  High 34.

Tuesday - Gray skies with perhaps a stray flurry, high 30.

Wednesday - Still not much sun to be found and cold.  High 28.

Have a wonderful night,