Quick Look, New Look

Hello!

If you read my post earlier today, you are aware of the demise of my graphics.  I have started to rebuild them, and made a few changes as well.  The biggest of these is that going forward, the blog will be simply South Central Michigan Weather.  I have been here long enough that regulars know that I focus on the 11 counties in South Central Michigan and include the rest as necessary and as time permits.

A new logo and updated (slightly) graphics.  Let me know what you think.  Quiet now and getting warmer, I expect some PM showers, but we should be fine for fireworks tonight.  Here's what I see:

Hope you like the new look.  More to come.  Have a great day!

Technical Difficulties...Please Stand By...

I wrote last night's blog post and thought it had posted, but it didn't.  OK.  It's still fairly early in the day, we fix that by hitting publish again, done deal.  The problem now - I HAVE LOST ALL OF THE SLIDES I USE FOR THE GRAPHICS YOU HAVE SEEN HERE!

Yep, every slide - gone.  I have the pictures, so I can re-create them, but this will take some time!  Please bear with me while I rebuild my slide collection!

Fireworks Between Showers This Holiday...

Good Evening!

While everyone is basically asleep, I have the chance to look at some weather data uninterrupted.  The pattern isn't really breaking all that much, but winds have shifted and temperature readings will start coming up during the day.  The good news is....

THE 4TH IS LOOKING DRY:  Both the GFS and NAM computer forecast models have come around to the solution that we'll have some showers and such that may linger early on into the 4th, but by midday we should be dry, and we that should into the night so I don't think we'll need to worry about any washed out fireworks displays.  About the only thing that will happen through the 4th is the roadblock high out over the Atlantic will retrograde (back up) somewhat and as it does, we get more waves rotating through the broader flow pattern which brings...

MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SUCH THIS WEEKEND:  Thanks to that high retrograding west, we'll see more of what we have seen the last several days.  Hit or miss showers and thunderstorms in periods throughout the area, and each day has a three or four in ten chance of any one spot getting wet.  And no, I can't give you precise arrival windows for these things.  The models are still not very sure, as one has them earlier in the day, another is closer to dusk, and a third has them early to mid-afternoon, so we will leave that go for the moment and revisit it later.  The WPC says about a half-inch or so through Monday, but I think some spots will see more than that, because the models don't do all that well with the setup for popcorn showers and storms.  I can say that by Tuesday, it looks like the Westerlies will have control of the upper air pattern and that means we'll see more typical summer weather, including rain coming from the west half of the compass instead of the east as...

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MICHIGAN:  When the blocking pattern finally gives way to regular zonal flow, that frees up everything to start moving east, and that includes the heat that has been bottled up in the Interior West for the last several days.  Good news, it will not be as scorching.  With the block removed, the wind doesn't have to go way south to come back into the US.  This will have a more Pacific feel to it, tempering the heat somewhat.  Temps here top out at 86 for the weekend and into next week according to the forecast models, but that will feel hot considering how cool we have been the last several days.

LOOKING DOWN THE ROAD:  Temperatures in the middle 80's with hit and miss showers until Wednesday, which, for the moment, looks to be pretty wet for South Central Michigan.  Of course, that could change on the next model run, but we'll see how things shape up and go with scattered to numerous showers and some thunder for a week out, with highs hanging tough in the mid 80's and lows in the mid 60's.

We'll have a forecast for you later.  Have a good night!

Why So Cool Here?

Hello!

I have had a couple of people ask me why we have been so cool for the end of June and the first part of July.  My first answer was don't complain - it'll get warm eventually.  My next answer was because of the "roadblock high" out over the Atlantic.  I figured an explanation was in order to get the quizzical looks off people's faces.

It's an upper air thing.  I will let an acquaintance of mine who is an expert explain it - far better and more concise than I can:

We have had a blocking pattern in place. which like it sounds means the atmosphere is blocked up. Nothing is moving and the pattern has been stuck. These patterns can bring hot and very dry weather if you are under the ridge, but if you are under the trough or low you get lots of rain. When these happen in the summer you have so much more moisture to work with that the storms everyday can really dump some serious rain. They are also very hard patterns to break in the summer because the jet stream has shifted so far north it takes time to undo these. It appears we might slowly see the Bermuda ridge take over by this weekend.

So there's your answer.  That strong high (the H at the right of the globe) is the guilty party.  As long as he stays there and hangs tough, nothing will move.  We expect this pattern to start resetting sometime after the 4th of July.

My thanks to NBC Charlotte (NC) Chief Meteorologist Brad Panovich for permission to use the graphics and his explanation.  Now, next time you hear me mention a roadblock high, now can visualize what I mean.  We'll delve into a holiday forecast for you soon.

Cool To Start - Clouds For the 4th...

Good Morning!

Unseasonably cool air in the area at this hour as we are in the base of a trough that is pulling colder air down from Canada.  We'll stay in it the next couple of days and also have a chance at some showers and thunderstorms to boot.  Let's take a closer look:

COOL THRU TUESDAY, THEN WARMING FOR THE FOURTH:  A big west ridge/east trough setup continues to dominate across the nation right through the Fourth Of July.  Average highs this time of year in South Central Michigan run right around 83, and we'll be below that pretty much through the weekend, but things do get more seasonable as the week progresses.  Two really cool days where we don't get out of the 70's for today and tomorrow, but we're looking at highs right around 80 for the holiday and on into weekend, with the GFS suggesting 80 for Wednesday, then gradually ticking up to 85 for Sunday.

A FAIRLY CLOUDY FOURTH:  While temperatures will be back in the seasonable range, sunshine will be in short supply for the holiday.  The upside to that is you shouldn't have to worry about any heavy-duty sunburn.  Nighttime fireworks viewing should be fine, with cloudy skies, but a high enough cloud deck to not hamper fireworks shows.  The odd thing is you may want something with some sleeves on it to wear for your fireworks, as lows will be flirting with the 60 mark for the evenings!

SCATTERED SHOWERS & STORMS STICK AROUND:  The trough we are under has a surface low in the base of it, and that thing had some showers backing into the area from the northeast yesterday.  It was kind of different to see storms approach from the eastern half of the compass on radar, and we may see some of those yet again today.  Nothing severe to mention, as SPC has us just in the general risk for Plain Jane storms, and I don't expect to see anything much further north than say, I-96, so Clinton and Shiawasee counties should stay pretty dry.  I say pretty because we still have the elements in place to trigger a few airmass showers or thunderstorms today.  The I-94 corridor and points south should plan on some shower activity.  Let's have a look at what the Weather Prediction Center thinks regarding rain for the next several days:

Weather Prediction Center 7 Day Forecast

About half to three-quarters of an inch, far southeast Michigan may see more than that.  This map is somewhat misleading, as the rain will be of the hit and miss variety, and any one spot has, at best, an even money shot at precipitation.  Let's have a look at the TruTrack Doppler Radar composite:

TruTrack Doppler Radar with Satellite Image layered on it - all quiet in Michigan right now!

Plenty of clouds in the area and not much rain, I expect that regarding rain to change for this afternoon and evening as we get a little bit more heating.

LOOKING AHEAD:  Not much change in the patterns as discussed above until we get into Friday.  Upper air patterns start to reset somewhat and that blistering heat that is baking the Intermountain West finally puts the plow blade on and starts pushing it's way in here for the new week.  The good news is the ridging stays fairly flat, indicating that we won't start baking as they have.  Some high pressure in the southeast and off in the Atlantic will allow upper disturbances to keep working through the area or close enough to brush us with some showers and such.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Parma and Rives Junction:

I will have an update and extended forecast thru the weekend up for you later today.  Have a great one!