Just a quick heads up that Livingston, Washtenaw and Lenawee counties have had their Winter Storm Watch changed to a Winter Weather Advisory.
Tuesday, February 26, 2013
Monday, February 25, 2013
WINTER WEATHER UPDATE
Good Evening!
If you haven't heard already by now, the Winter Storm Watch for part of the blog has been canceled. In it's place we have a Winter Weather Advisory. The National Weather Service (NWS) office in Grand Rapids has downgraded, but NWS Detroit is sticking by their Watch. Let's break it down by counties in the blog for you:
WINTER STORM WATCH
If you haven't heard already by now, the Winter Storm Watch for part of the blog has been canceled. In it's place we have a Winter Weather Advisory. The National Weather Service (NWS) office in Grand Rapids has downgraded, but NWS Detroit is sticking by their Watch. Let's break it down by counties in the blog for you:
WINTER STORM WATCH
- Livingston
- Washtenaw
- Wayne
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
- Branch
- Hillsdale
- Calhoun
- Jackson
- Eaton
- Ingham
- Clinton
- Shiawassee
Have a look at this snowfall forecast map from the NWS. Right there you see the amounts, so it looks like my 3-5" and 6-8" predictions are in the ballpark, we finally have the clarity that was lacking earlier today...
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| National Weather Service Snowfall Forecast Thru Wednesday Morning |
This forecast map seems to be leaning toward the GFS solution, keeping the heavier snow in the south zone of the blog.
I will have a full update and forecast for you tomorrow. Have a great night!
Sun Before The Storm
Hello Again!
Sunshine greets us in the area this morning, something we have not seen for a few days. A refreshing change it is. Bright blue skies with just a few high clouds here in Jackson, and we will keep those around for awhile today and into the early evening, as clouds start rolling in ahead of our next storm system. Let's pop the hood and see what's running in there:
TEMPERATURES: We finally start to see some slight moderation in our cold pattern. Average temperature in the area should be right around 39 degrees, and we'll be right in that ballpark for all but one, maybe two of the next seven days. With the exception of some weekend chilly air, we'll stay in the 35-39 degree range. I am hopeful that some warming will start to make itself evident, as meteorological Spring is only four days away, and March 10th is the start of Daylight Savings Time. I can't wait!
TUESDAY STORM: The inevitable arguing amongst our computer model suites have begun. Two of the models that I look at, the Global Forecast System (GFS) and the North American Mesoscale Model (NAM) are showing me that we will get some snow, but the amount and duration varies. In most cases, this is typical. The GFS takes the low pressure center more southeast of us, more into Lenawee and Monroe counties, and the NAM is suggesting that we get a direct hit right through the heart of the blog. The low's track will make the difference in how much snow accumulates. At first blush, I am thinking 3-5" through Wednesday night, with another inch or so through Thursday. Some areas will see closer to 6-7" though, but firming that up will have to come this evening as fresh data comes out and we see what the atmosphere is doing in reality at that point of the day.
Now we have the two big things out of the way, so it's time for a forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Concord and Tompkins:
Today, mostly sunny through the afternoon, then clouds slowly re-develop, a bit milder with a high of 39. Wind NE 4-8 MPH.
Tonight, mostly cloudy skies after 11 PM, flurries possible, lows near 22, wind NE 6-12 MPH.
Tuesday, cloudy skies, a wintry mix is possible from mid-morning on, changing to snow by evening, 2-3" possible before midnight. Not as cold, high 37. Wind NE 7-14 MPH.
Tuesday night, cloudy, snow continues and slowly starts tapering off later, lows near 22. Winds NE 7-14 MPH.
Wednesday, continued daytime cloudiness, another 2-3" of new snow possible by nightfall, high 38.
Thursday, clouds stay around, some lingering snow may fall, another 1-2" possible depending on your area, high 37.
Friday, some breaks appear in the clouds, not as mild, high 30.
Saturday, clearing skies, colder, high 30.
There's a look at your forecast, we'll keep tabs on the storm situation and update here accordingly. Urgent updates will also be posted on Facebook and Twitter. Have a great day! Blessings.
Sunshine greets us in the area this morning, something we have not seen for a few days. A refreshing change it is. Bright blue skies with just a few high clouds here in Jackson, and we will keep those around for awhile today and into the early evening, as clouds start rolling in ahead of our next storm system. Let's pop the hood and see what's running in there:
TEMPERATURES: We finally start to see some slight moderation in our cold pattern. Average temperature in the area should be right around 39 degrees, and we'll be right in that ballpark for all but one, maybe two of the next seven days. With the exception of some weekend chilly air, we'll stay in the 35-39 degree range. I am hopeful that some warming will start to make itself evident, as meteorological Spring is only four days away, and March 10th is the start of Daylight Savings Time. I can't wait!
TUESDAY STORM: The inevitable arguing amongst our computer model suites have begun. Two of the models that I look at, the Global Forecast System (GFS) and the North American Mesoscale Model (NAM) are showing me that we will get some snow, but the amount and duration varies. In most cases, this is typical. The GFS takes the low pressure center more southeast of us, more into Lenawee and Monroe counties, and the NAM is suggesting that we get a direct hit right through the heart of the blog. The low's track will make the difference in how much snow accumulates. At first blush, I am thinking 3-5" through Wednesday night, with another inch or so through Thursday. Some areas will see closer to 6-7" though, but firming that up will have to come this evening as fresh data comes out and we see what the atmosphere is doing in reality at that point of the day.
Now we have the two big things out of the way, so it's time for a forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Concord and Tompkins:
Today, mostly sunny through the afternoon, then clouds slowly re-develop, a bit milder with a high of 39. Wind NE 4-8 MPH.
Tonight, mostly cloudy skies after 11 PM, flurries possible, lows near 22, wind NE 6-12 MPH.
Tuesday, cloudy skies, a wintry mix is possible from mid-morning on, changing to snow by evening, 2-3" possible before midnight. Not as cold, high 37. Wind NE 7-14 MPH.
Tuesday night, cloudy, snow continues and slowly starts tapering off later, lows near 22. Winds NE 7-14 MPH.
Wednesday, continued daytime cloudiness, another 2-3" of new snow possible by nightfall, high 38.
Thursday, clouds stay around, some lingering snow may fall, another 1-2" possible depending on your area, high 37.
Friday, some breaks appear in the clouds, not as mild, high 30.
Saturday, clearing skies, colder, high 30.
There's a look at your forecast, we'll keep tabs on the storm situation and update here accordingly. Urgent updates will also be posted on Facebook and Twitter. Have a great day! Blessings.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY
Good Morning.
The National Weather Service has posted a Dense Fog Advisory for Clinton, Eaton, and Calhoun counties. Dense fog has formed overnight and will linger until the sun gets up high enough to burn it off.
Additionally, slick spots especially on bridges and overpasses may have formed with temps in the teens.
Use caution heading in to work and school this morning!
Sunday, February 24, 2013
Thoughts on Tuesday...
Good Evening...
I have been nosing around with BUFKIT and have had the chance to look over some forecast data. Still too soon to nail this down as far as an official forecast, but here's what I am seeing:
I have been nosing around with BUFKIT and have had the chance to look over some forecast data. Still too soon to nail this down as far as an official forecast, but here's what I am seeing:
- Tuesday morning a wintry mix is possible. Based on forecast model data, my money says that a window from 8 AM until about noon should fit the bill. Sleet, freezing rain or freezing drizzle. We would switch over to snow during the early afternoon, and a headache ensues for the Tuesday evening commute.
- Forecast modeling now suggests that we'll take a direct hit from the low coming out of the Plains, and the low will linger over the area for awhile.
- Snow stays in the area from Tuesday PM through Wednesday PM.
- Forecast snowfall is from 5 to 8.5" in the models I have looked at.
I am concerned about the thermodynamics of the whole situation. With data suggesting this will be a heavy wet snow event, it won't take much to tip the scales over to all rain and slash snowfall totals.
Have a great night!
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